No abstract

We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out-of-sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then used to derive quasi real time weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that a combination forecast improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, a combination forecast out-performs Norges Bank's own point forecast for inflation. The beneficial results are obtained using a trimmed weighted average. Some degree of trimming is required for the combination forecasts to out-perform the judgmental forecasts from the policymaker. JEL-codes: E52, E37 E47.

We introduce the distributed ledger (blockchain) technology of crypto‐currencies. We examine the ‘monetary’ attributes of crypto‐currencies, and describe some of the reasons they have been adopted. The paper discusses the mechanics of Bitcoin – the original crypto‐currency – to illustrate the fundamental elements of decentralized crypto‐currencies. We then provide a high‐level summary of the implications of crypto‐currencies for consumers, financial systems, and for monetary and regulatory authorities. We argue that crypto‐currencies are unlikely to supplant traditional fiat currencies and we anticipate an enduring role for financial intermediaries in facilitating credit.

Traditional vector autoregressions derive impulse responses using iterative techniques that may compound specification errors. Local projection techniques are robust to this problem, and Monte Carlo evidence suggests they provide reliable estimates of the true impulse responses. We use local linear projections to investigate the dynamic properties of a model for a small open economy, New Zealand. We compare impulse responses from local projections to those from standard techniques, and consider the implications for monetary policy. We pay careful attention to the dimensionality of the model, and focus on the effects of policy on GDP, interest rates, prices and the exchange rate.

No abstract