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Tropical forests and the biodiversity they contain are declining at an alarming rate throughout the world. Although southern Belize is generally recognized as a highly forested landscape, it is becoming increasingly threatened by unsustainable agricultural practices. Deforestation data allow forest managers to efficiently allocate resources and inform decisions for proper conservation and management. This study utilized satellite imagery to analyze recent forest cover and deforestation in southern Belize to model vulnerability and identify the areas that are the most susceptible to future forest loss. A forest cover change analysis was conducted in Google Earth Engine using a supervised classification of Landsat 8 imagery with ground-truthed land cover points as training data. A multi-layer perceptron neural network model was performed to predict the potential spatial patterns and magnitude of forest loss based on the regional drivers of deforestation. The assessment indicates that the agricultural frontier will continue to expand into recently untouched forests, predicting a decrease from 75.0% mature forest cover in 2016 to 71.9% in 2026. This study represents the most up-to-date assessment of forest cover and the first vulnerability and prediction assessment in southern Belize with immediate applications in conservation planning, monitoring, and management.

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Indigenous communities have always coexisted with nature. Their subsistence has had a dependence on the heightened stewardship of the natural environment, requiring that their farming practices evolve and adapt to today's rapidly changing environment. As the effects of climate change become more obvious in weather pattern alterations influencing agricultural yields, so do the resilient farming practices that are being adapted to strengthen the agricultural sector. Since forests are sources of livelihoods for Mayan communities, agricultural advances promoting forest conservation and good governance are viewed as socially and environmentally responsive approaches to rural development. Cacao-based agroforestry is a long-term solution to improve our forests' health and livelihoods in southern Belize. This system allows for the development of entrepreneurship opportunities through small-scale business models in agrotourism that highlight the cultural and biodiversity richness in these communities. The incorporation of apiculture and Inga alley cropping ensure that traditional crops such as corn, beans, and vegetables can be continuously cultivated, decreasing the deforestation rate, hence conserving our landscape and its ecosystem. These practices involve the growing of staples for the organized communities, who are embracing ecofriendly solutions for a sustainable future. The experience and knowledge developed within the communities have resulted in the development and application of climate-smart solutions and adaptation mechanisms that ensure livelihoods continue to thrive. These local initiatives establish an easy-to-replicate forest governance model, influencing regional and even national solutions to building climate-resilient forest communities in the Maya Golden Landscape.

Throughout the world, deforestation, degradation, and fragmentation threaten the integrity of tropical forests and the biodiversity that they contain. Although southern Belize is generally recognized as a highly forested landscape, it is becoming increasingly threatened as unsustainable agricultural practices reduce its capacity to provide life-supporting ecosystem services. Deforestation data is necessary for forest managers to efficiently allocate resources and make decisions for proper conservation and resource management. This study utilized satellite imagery to map and analyze current forest cover and recent forest loss in southern Belize in order to identify the areas that are the most susceptible to future deforestation. A forest cover change analysis was conducted using a supervised classification of Landsat imagery and ground-truthed land cover points in Google Earth Engine. Then, a proximity-based model was used to predict where deforestation could occur in the future based on the drivers of deforestation. The assessment indicates that the agricultural frontier will continue to expand into recently untouched forests. The results of this study will be used in spatial conservation planning in order to strategically focus conservation efforts in the most threatened areas in southern Belize. The sites that were found to be most vulnerable to future deforestation will be locations for implementing law enforcement and compliance, sustainable agriculture, and community outreach. This method could be applied to conservation planning in other regions to prioritize the protection of threatened areas.