This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the costcontainment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively.

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for their comments and input during the preparation of the study. The collaboration and the expertise of Paulo Santiago and Thomas Wecko were also particularly useful, as well as comments we received from other colleagues of the OECD Directorate for Education. The comments of Paul Swain and Sven Blondal were particular useful to prepare the final version of this article. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the OECD or its member countries.

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Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(2002)12 Unclassified English text only ECO/WKP(2002)12 2 ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉ Sectoral shifts in Europe and the United States: How they affect aggregate labour shares and the properties of wage equationsThis paper sheds light on the importance of aggregation bias in the analysis of wage shares developments over time and across countries. We focus on five European countries and the United States and show that the trend decline in the aggregate wage share observed in these countries over much of the 1980s and 1990s partly reflects changes in the sectoral composition of the economy. The application of a fixed-weight aggregation method changes the profile of the observed wage share in a significant way: in particular there is no longer sign of an overshooting of the wage share levels of the early-1970s. Error-correction wage equations based on the adjusted wage shares generally have a better regression fit and show long-run elasticities of real wages to unemployment that vary less across countries and are substantially lower than those obtained with observed shares. These results are broadly confirmed by wage regressions using sectoral data and the Pooled Mean Group estimator.