Prediction of trajectories such as that of pedestrians is crucial to the performance of autonomous agents. While previous works have leveraged conditional generative models like GANs and VAEs for learning the likely future trajectories, accurately modeling the dependency structure of these multimodal distributions, particularly over long time horizons remains challenging. Normalizing flow based generative models can model complex distributions admitting exact inference. These include variants with split coupling invertible transformations that are easier to parallelize compared to their autoregressive counterparts. To this end, we introduce a novel Haar wavelet based block autoregressive model leveraging split couplings, conditioned on coarse trajectories obtained from Haar wavelet based transformations at different levels of granularity. This yields an exact inference method that models trajectories at different spatio-temporal resolutions in a hierarchical manner. We illustrate the advantages of our approach for generating diverse and accurate trajectories on two real-world datasets – Stanford Drone and Intersection Drone.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this chapter (10.1007/978-3-030-71278-5_20) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
For prediction of interacting agents' trajectories, we propose an end-to-end trainable architecture that hybridizes neural nets with game-theoretic reasoning, has interpretable intermediate representations, and transfers to downstream decision making. It uses a net that reveals preferences from the agents' past joint trajectory, and a differentiable implicit layer that maps these preferences to local Nash equilibria, forming the modes of the predicted future trajectory. Additionally, it learns an equilibrium refinement concept. For tractability, we introduce a new class of continuous potential games and an equilibrium-separating partition of the action space. We provide theoretical results for explicit gradients and soundness. In experiments, we evaluate our approach on two real-world data sets, where we predict highway drivers' merging trajectories, and on a simple decision-making transfer task.
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