Summary1. Ecology and conservation require reliable data on the occurrence of animals and plants. A major source of bias is imperfect detection, which, however, can be corrected for by estimation of detectability. In traditional occupancy models, this requires repeat or multi-observer surveys. Recently, time-to-detection models have been developed as a cost-effective alternative, which requires no repeat surveys and hence costs could be halved. 2. We compared the efficiency and reliability of time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models under varying survey effort. Two observers independently searched for 17 plant species in 44 100 m 2 Swiss grassland quadrats and recorded the time-to-detection for each species, enabling detectability to be estimated with both time-todetection and traditional occupancy models. In addition, we gauged the relative influence on detectability of species, observer, plant height and two measures of abundance (cover and frequency). 3. Estimates of detectability and occupancy under both models were very similar. Rare species were more likely to be overlooked; detectability was strongly affected by abundance. As a measure of abundance, frequency outperformed cover in its predictive power. The two observers differed significantly in their detection ability. 4. Time-to-detection models were as accurate as traditional occupancy models, but their data easier to obtain; thus they provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional occupancy models for detection-corrected estimation of occurrence.

Size-selective fishing, environmental changes and reproductive strategies are expected to affect life-history traits such as the individual growth rate. The relative contribution of these factors is not clear, particularly whether size-selective fishing can have a substantial impact on the genetics and hence on the evolution of individual growth rates in wild populations. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of an isolated population of the Alpine whitefish Coregonus palaea. We determined the selection differentials on growth rate, the actual change of growth rate over time and indicators of reproductive strategies that may potentially change over time. The selection differential can be reliably estimated in our study population because almost all the fish are harvested within their first years of life, i.e. few fish escape fishing mortality. We found a marked decline in average adult growth rate over the 25 years and a significant selection differential for adult growth, but no evidence for any linear change in reproductive strategies over time. Assuming that the heritability of growth in this whitefish corresponds to what was found in other salmonids, about a third of the observed decline in growth rate would be linked to fishery-induced evolution. Size-selective fishing seems to affect substantially the genetics of individual growth in our study population.

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Despite increasing awareness of global biodiversity loss, we lack quantitative data on local extinctions for many species. This is especially true for rare species, which are typically assessed on the basis of expert judgment rather than data. Revisiting previously assessed populations enables estimation of local extinction rates and the identification of species characteristics and habitats with high local extinction risk. Between 2010 and 2016, in a nationwide revisitation study, 420 volunteer botanists revisited 8,024 populations of the 713 rarest and most threatened plant species in Switzerland recorded between 1960 and 2001. Of the revisited 8,024 populations, 27% had gone locally extinct. Among critically endangered species, the local extinctions increased to 40%. Species from ruderal and freshwater habitat types showed the highest proportion of local extinctions. Our results provide compelling evidence for rapid and widespread local extinctions and suggest that current conservation measures are insufficient. Local extinctions precede and provide early warnings for global extinctions. The ongoing loss of populations suggests that we will lose species diversity unless we scale up species-targeted conservation and restoration measures, especially in anthropogenic landscapes.

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