Spaceborne gravimetry data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) are processed using spatio‐spectral Slepian localization analysis enabling the high‐resolution detection of permanent gravity change associated with both coseismic and postseismic deformation resulting from the great 11 March 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake. The GRACE observations are then used in a geophysical inversion to estimate a new slip model containing both coseismic slip and after‐slip. The GRACE estimated moment for the total slip, up to the end of July 2011 is estimated as (4.59 ± 0.49) × 1022 N m, equivalent to a composite Mw of 9.07 ± 0.65. If the moment for the Tohoku‐Oki main shock is assumed to be 3.8 × 1022 N m, the contribution from the after‐slip is estimated to be 3.0 × 1021–12.8 × 1021 N m, in good agreement with a postseismic slip model inverted from GPS data. We conclude that GRACE data provide an independent constraint to quantify co‐ and post‐seismic deformation for the Tohoku‐Oki event.
The retreat of glaciers in response to global warming has the potential to trigger landslides in glaciated regions around the globe. Landslides that enter fjords or lakes can cause tsunamis, which endanger people and infrastructure far from the landslide itself. Here we document the ongoing movement of an unstable slope (total volume of 455 × 10 6 m 3) in Barry Arm, a fjord in Prince William Sound, Alaska. The slope moved rapidly between 2010 and 2017, yielding a horizontal displacement of 120 m, which is highly correlated with the rapid retreat and thinning of Barry Glacier. Should the entire unstable slope collapse at once, preliminary tsunami modeling suggests a maximum runup of 300 m near the landslide, which may have devastating impacts on local communities. Our findings highlight the need for interdisciplinary studies of recently deglaciated fjords to refine our understanding of the impact of climate change on landslides and tsunamis. Plain Language Summary Climate warming and the resulting retreat of glaciers may destabilize mountain slopes, triggering landslides. For those landslides that enter fjords, the induced tsunamis are a significant hazard to coastal communities. Despite this risk, most periglacial landslides have been detected only after the event. Using satellite data, we detect a large, slow-moving landslide in Barry Arm, Alaska, and assess its hazard potential. The volume of the landslide is estimated to be 8 times larger than the 17 June 2017 Karrat Fjord landslide in Greenland, which generated a tsunami and killed four people. We found that the Barry Arm landslide moved rapidly between 2010 and 2017, while Barry Glacier quickly thinned and retreated from the landslide area. If the entire unstable slope would collapse, it could generate a tsunami with a runup up to 300 m in the vicinity of the landslide with hazardous waves reaching local communities in Prince William Sound, which is frequently visited by fishermen, tourists, and cruise ships. Our study highlights the need to systematically assess the emerging hazards of landslides and tsunamis influenced by climate change.
We describe and model the evolution of a recent landslide, tsunami, outburst flood, and sediment plume in the southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, Canada. On November 28, 2020, about 18 million m3 of rock descended 1,000 m from a steep valley wall and traveled across the toe of a glacier before entering a 0.6 km2 glacier lake and producing >100‐m high run‐up. Water overtopped the lake outlet and scoured a 10‐km long channel before depositing debris on a 2‐km2 fan below the lake outlet. Floodwater, organic debris, and fine sediment entered a fjord where it produced a 60+km long sediment plume and altered turbidity, water temperature, and water chemistry for weeks. The outburst flood destroyed forest and salmon spawning habitat. Physically based models of the landslide, tsunami, and flood provide real‐time simulations of the event and can improve understanding of similar hazard cascades and the risk they pose.
<p>On 28 November 2020, about 18 Mm<sup>3</sup> of quartz diorite detached from a steep rock face at the head of Elliot Creek in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. The rock mass fragmented as it descended 1000 m and flowed across a debris-covered glacier. The rock avalanche was recorded on local and distant seismometers, with long-period amplitudes equivalent to a M 4.9 earthquake. Local seismic stations detected several earthquakes of magnitude <2.4 over the minutes and hours preceding the slide, though no causative relationship is yet suggested. More than half of the rock debris entered a 0.6 km<sup>2 </sup>lake, where it generated a huge displacement wave that overtopped the moraine at the far end of the lake. Water that left the lake was channelized along Elliot Creek, deeply scouring the valley fill over a distance of 10 km before depositing debris on a 2 km<sup>2</sup> fan in the Southgate River valley. Debris temporarily dammed the river, and turbid water continued down the Southgate River to Bute Inlet, where it produced a 70 km turbidity current and altered turbidity and water chemistry in the inlet for weeks. The landslide followed a century of rapid glacier retreat and thinning that exposed a growing lake basin. The outburst flood extended the damage of the landslide far beyond the limit of the landslide, destroying forest and impacting salmon spawning and rearing habitat. We expect more cascading impacts from landslides in the glacierized mountains of British Columbia as glaciers continue to retreat, exposing water bodies below steep slopes while simultaneously removing buttressing support.</p>
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