Modelling BCL2-family proteins identifies patients unresponsive to therapy. Caspase activation downstream of mitochondria cannot identify these patients. Rectal tumours of poor responders are BCL2- but not BCL-XL-dependent. DR_MOMP allows clinicians to identify patients who would not benefit from therapy. DR_MOMP is also a useful patient stratification tool for BCL2 antagonists.

Despite the introduction of novel targeted therapies, chemotherapy still remains the primary treatment for metastatic melanoma in poorly funded healthcare environments or in case of disease relapse, with no reliable molecular markers for progression-free survival (PFS) available. As chemotherapy primarily eliminates cancer cells by apoptosis, we here evaluated if the expression of key apoptosis regulators (Bax, Bak, Bcl-2, Bcl-xL, Smac, Procaspase-9, Apaf-1, Procaspase-3 and XIAP) allows prognosticating PFS in stage III/IV melanoma patients. Following antibody validation, marker expression was determined by automated and manual scoring of immunohistochemically stained tissue microarrays (TMAs) constructed from treatment-naive metastatic melanoma biopsies. Interestingly and counter-intuitively, low expression of the pro-apoptotic proteins Bax, Bak and Smac indicated better prognosis (log-rank p < 0.0001, p = 0.0301 and p = 0.0227 for automated and p = 0.0422, p = 0.0410 and p = 0.0073 for manual scoring). These findings were independently validated in the cancer genome atlas (TCGA) metastatic melanoma cohort (TCGA-SKCM) at transcript level (log-rank p = 0.0004, p = 0.0104 and p = 0.0377). Taking expression heterogeneity between the markers in individual tumour samples into account allowed defining combinatorial Bax, Bak, Smac signatures that were associated with significantly increased PFS (p = 0.0002 and p = 0.0028 at protein and transcript level, respectively). Furthermore, combined low expression of Bax, Bak and Smac allowed predicting prolonged PFS (> 12 months) on a case-by-case basis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) = 0.79). Taken together, our results therefore suggest that Bax, Bak and Smac jointly define a signature with potential clinical utility in chemotherapy-treated metastatic melanoma.

Malignant melanoma is one of the most aggressive cancers. Several new therapeutic strategies that focus on immuno- and/or targeted therapy have been developed, which have entered clinical trials or already been approved. This review provides an update on prognostic and predictive biomarkers in melanoma that may be used to improve the clinical management of patients. Prognostic markers include conventional histopathological characteristics, chromosomal aberrations, gene expression patterns and miRNA profiles. There is a trend towards multi-marker assays and whole-genome molecular screening methods to determine the prognosis of individual patients. Predictive biomarkers, including targeted components of signal transduction, developmental or transcriptional pathways, can be used to determine patient response towards a particular treatment or combination thereof. The rapid evolution of sequencing technologies and multi-marker screening will change the spectrum of patients who become candidates for therapeutic agents, and in addition create new ethical and regulatory challenges.