In this paper we assess the implications of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) for the banking sector in African signatory countries. With emphasis on the free trade element, we first review the relevant provisions of the GATS for banking services and the main exemptions held by African countries. We then analyse the main efficiency indicators for a sample of the top banks in 18 African economies for the period 1997 -1998. We also use univariate statistics to analyse the dispersion of the key bank pricing and liquidity indicators in these economies for the period 1994 -1998. The main findings imply that although full liberalisation, implicit in the WTO and GATS protocols, will lead to a substantial shake-up of the African banking industry. However, provided they have an appropriate regulatory framework and allow sufficient lead time, most African countries have little to fear from liberalisation at least in terms of the continuing existence of a locally owned banking industry; and indeed, these countries could reasonably expect to be able to restructure and compete, at the very least in African-wide or regional markets.
In order to better understand the effects of globalization on merger incentives this paper considers a set of commonly observed mergers whereby a restructured target (with improved managerial or technical capability) continues to supply the market. In contrast to the market-concentrating merger literature it finds that trade barriers tend to encourage mergers, including potentially welfare-reducing, tariff-jumping mergers. Multilateral trade liberalization, however, encourages welfare-improving mergers. Hence, and despite the skepticism of regulatory authorities towards the existence of cost synergies as a consequence of mergers, this paper suggests that in order to assess the impact of trade liberalization under the WTO on merger incentives, and consequently on prices, quantities, and welfare, accurate information on ex ante cost differences and the transferability of managerial and technical techniques is required. Copyright � 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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