Balneotherapy may be a relevant treatment for chronic low back pain (LBP) in individuals > 60 years old. This pilot study aimed to determine the effectiveness of balneotherapy for chronic LBP in people > 60 years old and to determine profiles of responders with trajectory model analysis. This was a pilot prospective open cohort study, with repeated measurements using validated questionnaires; participants were their own controls. The primary endpoint was the proportion of participants with a change in pain intensity between the start of treatment and 3 months after treatment assessed with a numeric scale (NS) from 0 to 100 mm, with an effect size (ES) > 0.5. The assessments involved questionnaires that were self-administered on days (D) 1 and 21 and at months 3 and 6. The secondary objective was to determine the profile of responders to balneotherapy. We included 78 patients (69.2% women), mean age 68.3 ± 5.3 years. The mean pain score on the NS was 48.8 ± 19.9 at D1 and 39.1 ± 20.5 at 3 months (p < 0.001). The ES was 0.47 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25 to 0.69] for the whole sample; 36% (28/78) had an ES > 0.5; 23% (18/78) had a moderate ES (0 to 0.5); and 41% (32/78) had an ES of zero (14/78) or < 0 (18/78), corresponding to increased pain intensity. The pain trajectory model showed that the change in pain between D1 and D21 for trajectory A (larger reduction in pain intensity) was −50% [95% CI −60 to −27], and for trajectory B (smaller reduction in pain intensity), it was −13% [−33 to 0] (p < 0.001). Between Day 1 and month 3, the change for trajectory A was −33% [−54; 0] and for trajectory B was −13% [−40 to 0] (p = 0.14). Finally, between D1 and month 6, the change for trajectory A was −50% [−60 to 0] and for trajectory B was −6% [−33 to 17] (p = 0.007). The patients in trajectory A reported performing more physical activity than those in trajectory B (p = 0.04). They were also less disabled, with a mean Oswestry Disability Index of 40.4 versus 45.7 for those in trajectory A and B, respectively, (p = 0.03) and had a higher total Arthritis Self-Efficacy Scale score. This real-life study of the effectiveness of balneotherapy on chronic LBP identified distinct pain trajectories and predictive variables for responders. These criteria could be used in decision-making regarding the prescription of balneotherapy, to ensure personalized management of chronic LBP.

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