In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computational models that can help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying models across a wide range of domains from public policy to science and engineering. It provides two checklists to help potential modellers, commissioners and users ensure they have considered the most significant factors that will determine success. We conclude there is a need to reinforce modelling as a discipline, so that misconstruction is less likely; to increase understanding of modelling in all domains, so that the misuse of models is reduced; and to bring commissioners closer to modelling, so that the results are more useful.
Stories have cognitive value-listened to carefully and expertly, they provide knowledge. That knowledge is captured and presented in narrative evidencethe product of the expert act of critical engagement with stories, and with others' engagement with stories. Storylistening is the theory and practice of gathering narrative evidence to inform decision-making, especially in relation to public reasoning, as part of a pluralistic evidence base. Storylistening is necessary to counter the political deployment of partial, selective, or misinterpreted narrative evidence. There are four ways in which stories can contribute to public reasoning about climate change. Stories play a role in reframing the "idea" of climate change, as well as being integral to many of the new disciplines, perspectives and knowledges drawn in as relevant by that reframing. Stories create and cohere collective identities and climate change beliefs and behavior. Narrative models complement and supplement computational models, creating an ensemble of models that more adequately covers the gaps that result from only deploying big, global, generalized models. Stories play a crucial role in enabling better anticipation for decision-making, and storylistening can enable the use of narrative evidence from narrative futures methods, as well as perhaps improve the ways scientific evidence about the future is also listened to. Incorporating storylistening into public reasoning about climate change requires the evolution of advisory systems and of the academic humanities, and can play a role in the urgent need to democratize public reasoning about climate change.
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