The total spatial coverage of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) within the Brazilian Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) has recently achieved the quantitative requirement of the Aichii Biodiversity Target 11. However, the distribution of MPAs in the Brazilian EEZ is still unbalanced regarding the proportion of protected ecosystems, protection goals and management types. Moreover, the demographic connectivity between these MPAs and their effectiveness regarding the maintenance of biodiversity are still not comprehensively understood. An individual-based modeling scheme coupled with a regional hydrodynamic model of the ocean is used to determine the demographic connectivity of reef fishes based on the widespread genus Sparisoma found in the oceanic islands and on the Brazilian continental shelf between 10° N and 23° S. Model results indicate that MPAs are highly isolated due to extremely low demographic connectivity. Consequently, low connectivity and the long distances separating MPAs contribute to their isolation. Therefore, the current MPA design falls short of its goal of maintaining the demographic connectivity of Sparisoma populations living within these areas. In an extreme scenario in which the MPAs rely solely on protected populations for recruits, it is unlikely that they will be able to effectively contribute to the resilience of these populations or other reef fish species sharing the same dispersal abilities. Results also show that recruitment occurs elsewhere along the continental shelf indicating that the protection of areas larger than the current MPAs would enhance the network, maintain connectivity and contribute to the conservation of reef fishes.

Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Results indicate a tropicalization scenario over the tropical southwest Atlantic following an increase of sea surface temperature (SST) between 1.8 and 4.5 °C and changes in mean surface currents between − 0.6 to 0.5 m s−1 relative to present conditions. High mortality rates will reduce demographic connectivity and increase the isolation of oceanic islands. The simulation of organismal response to ocean warming shows that acclimation can significantly improve (p < 0.001) particle survival, promoting connectivity and tropicalization of MPAs, with potential impacts on their functional integrity and long-term resilience.

By combining an ocean model, a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus-model and an individual-based model for early life stages of Northeast Arctic cod we systematically investigate food limitations and growth performance for individual cod larvae drifting along the Norwegian coast from spawning grounds toward nursery areas in the Barents Sea. We hypothesize that there is food shortage for larvae spawned early and late in the 2-monthlong spawning period, and to a larger degree to the north and south of the main spawning grounds in the Lofoten. Model results for three contrasting years (1995, 2001, and 2002) show that spawning early in the season at spawning grounds in the Lofoten and farther north is favorable for larval growth close to their size- and temperature-dependent potential. Still, both early and late spawned larvae experience slower growth than individuals originating closer to the time of peak spawning late March/early April. The reasons are low temperatures and shortage in suitable prey, respectively, and this occurs more frequent in areas of strong currents about 1–2 months post hatching. In particular, late spawned larvae grow relatively slow despite higher temperatures later in the season because they are outgrown by their preferred prey.

The spatial distribution of fish early life stages can impact recruitment at later stages and affect population size and resilience. Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod spawning occurs along the Norwegian coast. Eggs, larvae, and pelagic juveniles drift near-surface towards the Barents Sea nursery area. In this study, a 35-year long time series of NEA cod larvae data was analysed in combination with factors that potentially may affect the distribution of eggs and larvae. These factors included biological aspects of the spawning stock, and environmental variables, such as water temperature, wind, ocean current, and prey abundance. Our aim was to shed light on how these factors influence larval abundance and distribution and how larval abundance and distribution influenced recruitment at age 3. We found that biomass and mean weight of the spawners were positively associated with larval abundance and that a high liver condition index of the spawners was associated with a north-easterly distribution of the larvae. The environmental variables showed generally weak or no correlations with abundance or distribution of larvae. Lastly, we found significant association between larval abundance and year-class abundance at age 3, while the spatial distribution metrics of the larvae, i.e. distribution extent, mean longitude, and mean latitude, showed no significant association with future year-class abundance.