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Assessing the genetic variability of plant performance under heat and drought scenarios can contribute to reduce the negative effects of climate change. We propose here an approach that consisted of (1) clustering time courses of environmental variables simulated by a crop model in current (35 years 3 55 sites) and future conditions into six scenarios of temperature and water deficit as experienced by maize (Zea mays L.) plants; (2) performing 29 field experiments in contrasting conditions across Europe with 244 maize hybrids; (3) assigning individual experiments to scenarios based on environmental conditions as measured in each field experiment; frequencies of temperature scenarios in our experiments corresponded to future heat scenarios (+5°C); (4) analyzing the genetic variation of plant performance for each environmental scenario. Forty-eight quantitative trait loci (QTLs) of yield were identified by association genetics using a multi-environment multi-locus model. Eight and twelve QTLs were associated to tolerances to heat and drought stresses because they were specific to hot and dry scenarios, respectively, with low or even negative allelic effects in favorable scenarios. Twenty-four QTLs improved yield in favorable conditions but showed nonsignificant effects under stress; they were therefore associated with higher sensitivity. Our approach showed a pattern of QTL effects expressed as functions of environmental variables and scenarios, allowing us to suggest hypotheses for mechanisms and candidate genes underlying each QTL. It can be used for assessing the performance of genotypes and the contribution of genomic regions under current and future stress situations and to accelerate breeding for drought-prone environments.With climate changes, crops will be subjected to more frequent episodes of drought and high temperature that may threaten food security (IPCC, 2014). Reducing the impacts of these effects is an urgent priority that (not exclusively) involves the genetic progress of plant performance under heat and drought stresses (Tester and Langridge, 2010;Lobell et al., 2011). Because hundreds of new genotypes of most cereals are commercialized every year, a generic approach is needed to avoid an endless series of experiments assessing the performances of the newly released genotypes. A systematic exploration of the natural genetic diversity used in breeding can provide information usable for large groups of genotypes. This entails the identification, among the thousands of accessions existing in gene banks, of allelic variants exhibiting specific adaptation traits by addressing three questions: (1) Is there a genetic variability for yield and related traits in dry and hot environments? (2) Can this genetic variability be dissected into the effect of genomic regions (quantitative trait loci, QTLs), and (3) have these genomic

Under drought, substantial genotype-environment (G 3 E) interactions impede breeding progress for yield. Identifying genetic controls associated with yield response is confounded by poor genetic correlations across testing environments. Part of this problem is related to our inability to account for the interplay of genetic controls, physiological traits, and environmental conditions throughout the crop cycle. We propose a modeling approach to bridge this ''gene-to-phenotype'' gap. For maize under drought, we simulated the impact of quantitative trait loci (QTL) controlling two key processes (leaf and silk elongation) that influence crop growth, water use, and grain yield. Substantial G 3 E interaction for yield was simulated for hypothetical recombinant inbred lines (RILs) across different seasonal patterns of drought. QTL that accelerated leaf elongation caused an increase in crop leaf area and yield in wellwatered or preflowering water deficit conditions, but a reduction in yield under terminal stresses (as such ''leafy'' genotypes prematurely exhausted the water supply). The QTL impact on yield was substantially enhanced by including pleiotropic effects of these QTL on silk elongation and on consequent grain set. The simulations obtained illustrated the difficulty of interpreting the genetic control of yield for genotypes influenced only by the additive effects of QTL associated with leaf and silk growth. The results highlight the potential of integrative simulation modeling for gene-to-phenotype prediction and for exploiting G 3 E interactions for complex traits such as drought tolerance.