BackgroundThere is sparse evidence that demonstrates the association between macro-environmental processes and drug-related HIV epidemics. The present study explores the relationship between economic, socio-economic, policy and structural indicators, and increases in reported HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the European Economic Area (EEA).MethodsWe used panel data (2003–2012) for 30 EEA countries. Statistical analyses included logistic regression models. The dependent variable was taking value 1 if there was an outbreak (significant increase in the national rate of HIV diagnoses in PWID) and 0 otherwise. Explanatory variables included the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the share of the population that is at risk for poverty, the unemployment rate, the Eurostat S80/S20 ratio, the Gini coefficient, the per capita government expenditure on health and social protection, and variables on drug control policy and drug-using population sizes. Lags of one to three years were investigated.FindingsIn multivariable analyses, using two-year lagged values, we found that a 1% increase of GDP was associated with approximately 30% reduction in the odds of an HIV outbreak. In GDP-adjusted analyses with three-year lagged values, the effect of the national income inequality on the likelihood of an HIV outbreak was significant [S80/S20 Odds Ratio (OR) = 3.89; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.15 to 13.13]. Generally, the multivariable analyses produced similar results across three time lags tested.InterpretationGiven the limitations of ecological research, we found that declining economic growth and increasing national income inequality were associated with an elevated probability of a large increase in the number of HIV diagnoses among PWID in EEA countries during the last decade. HIV prevention may be more effective if developed within national and European-level policy contexts that promote income equality, especially among vulnerable groups.

Aims: Economic recessions impact on drug use through different channels, with potential conflicting outcomes. Previous studies have reached mixed outcomes, and a clear and comprehensive picture is difficult to depict. Methods: We use a systematic review of literature – conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines – and a hierarchical mixed-effects meta-analysis to provide a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the relationship between business cycle and the use of drugs by young populations. The heterogeneity of studies was assessed by the I2 statistic, and the publication bias was evaluated with contour-enhanced funnel plots. Results: We identify 25 studies, published over the period 2008–2020. These articles carried out an empirical analysis of the impact of the business cycle on illegal drug consumption in Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) countries. Most of the studies (17 studies) covered the 2007 financial crisis. Among the outcomes, 9 studies traced a countercyclical relationship between economic recessions and drug use, 3 showed a procyclical relationship and 13 studies found mixed results. Unemployment was the most widely used variable to assess macroeconomic conditions in most of the studies (21 studies). The meta-analysis shows a partial correlation of .03 (95% confidence interval (CI): .0147–.0453) between the unemployment rate and drug use among young individuals. Therefore, we conclude that, on average, recessions tend to boost drug use. This impact is more marked with cannabis use than it is with cocaine, opioids or other drugs. Conclusion: This study provides robust evidence that in periods of economic downturns, the young populations tend to increase the use of illegal drugs, with cannabis as their main preference. Therefore, in periods of economic severity, society may particularly benefit from implementing widely reaching public prevention programmes and demand reduction interventions, targeting this subgroup of the population.

No abstract