No abstract

Although the consequences of population aging for growth in health expenditures have been widely investigated, research on this topic is rather fragmented. Therefore, these consequences are not fully understood. This paper reviews the consequences of population aging for health expenditure growth in Western countries by combining insights from epidemiological and health economics research. Based on a conceptual model of health care use, we first review evidence on the relationship between age and health expenditures to provide insight into the direct effect of aging on health expenditure growth. Second, we discuss the interaction between aging and the main societal drivers of health expenditures. Aging most likely influences growth in health expenditures indirectly, through its influence on these societal factors. The literature shows that the direct effect of aging depends strongly on underlying health and disability. Commonly used approximations of health, like age or mortality, insufficiently capture complex dynamics in health. Population aging moderately increases expenditures on acute care and strongly increases expenditures on long-term care. The evidence further shows that the most important driver of health expenditure growth, medical technology, interacts strongly with age and health, i.e., population aging reinforces the influence of medical technology on health expenditure growth and vice versa. We therefore conclude that population aging will remain in the centre of policy debate. Further research should focus on the changes in health that explain the effect of longevity gains on health expenditures, and on the interactions between aging and other societal factors driving expenditure growth.

International differences in long-term care (LTC) use are well documented, but not well understood. Using comparable data from two countries with universal public LTC insurance, the Netherlands and Germany, we examine how institutional differences relate to differences in the choice for informal and formal LTC. Although the overall LTC utilization rate is similar in both countries, use of formal care is more prevalent in the Netherlands and informal care use in Germany. Decomposition of the between-country differences in formal and informal LTC use reveals that these differences are not chiefly the result of differences in population characteristics but mainly derive from differences in the effects of these characteristics that are associated with between-country institutional differences. These findings demonstrate that system features such as eligibility rules and coverage generosity and, indirectly, social preferences can influence the choice between formal and informal care. Less comprehensive coverage also has equity implications: for the poor, access to formal LTC is more difficult in Germany than in the Netherlands.

Including informal care in economic evaluations is increasingly advocated but problematic. We investigated three well-known concerns regarding contingent valuation (CV): (1) the item non-response of CV values, (2) the sensitivity of CV values to the individual circumstances of caring, and (3) the choice of valuation method by comparing willingness-to-pay (WTP) and willingness-to-accept (WTA) values for a hypothetical marginal change in hours of informal care currently provided.The study sample consisted of 1453 caregivers and 787 care recipients. Of the caregivers, 603 caregivers (41.5%) provided both WTP and WTA values, 983 (67.7%) provided at least one. Determinants of non-response were dependent on the valuation method; primary determinants were education and satisfaction with amount of informal care provided. Caregivers' mean WTP (WTA) for reducing (increasing) informal care by 1 h was euro9.13 (10.52). Care recipients' mean WTA (WTP) for reducing (increasing) informal care by 1 h was euro8.88 (euro6.85). Values were associated with a variety of characteristics of the caregiving situation; explanatory variables differed between WTP and WTA valuations. The differences between WTP and WTA valuations were small.Based on sensitivity CV appears to be a useful method to value informal care for use in economic evalations, non-response, however, remains a matter of concern.