Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on CMIP5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new 21st-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projectionsbefore 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

Biochars produced by slow pyrolysis of greenwaste (GW), poultry litter (PL), papermill waste (PS), and biosolids (BS) were shown to reduce N2O emissions from an acidic Ferrosol. Similar reductions were observed for the untreated GW feedstock. Soil was amended with biochar or feedstock giving application rates of 1 and 5%. Following an initial incubation, nitrogen (N) was added at 165 kg/ha as urea. Microcosms were again incubated before being brought to 100% water-filled porosity and held at this water content for a further 47 days. The flooding phase accounted for the majority (<80%) of total N2O emissions. The control soil released 3165 mg N2O-N/m2, or 15.1% of the available N as N2O. Amendment with 1 and 5% GW feedstock significantly reduced emissions to 1470 and 636 mg N2O-N/m2, respectively. This was equivalent to 8.6 and 3.8% of applied N. The GW biochar produced at 350°C was least effective in reducing emissions, resulting in 1625 and 1705 mg N2O-N/m2 for 1 and 5% amendments. Amendment with BS biochar at 5% had the greatest impact, reducing emissions to 518 mg N2O-N/m2, or 2.2% of the applied N over the incubation period. Metabolic activity as measured by CO2 production could not explain the differences in N2O emissions between controls and amendments, nor could NH4+ or NO3– concentrations in biochar-amended soils. A decrease in NH4+ and NO3– following GW feedstock application is likely to have been responsible for reducing N2O emissions from this amendment. Reduction in N2O emissions from the biochar-amended soils was attributed to increased adsorption of NO3–. Small reductions are possible due to improved aeration and porosity leading to lower levels of denitrification and N2O emissions. Alternatively, increased pH was observed, which can drive denitrification through to dinitrogen during soil flooding.

We assessed the effect of biochar incorporation into the soil on the soil-atmosphere exchange of the greenhouse gases (GHG) from an intensive subtropical pasture. For this, we measured N 2 O, CH 4 and CO 2 emissions with high temporal resolution from April to June 2009 in an existing factorial experiment where cattle feedlot biochar had been applied at 10 t ha −1 in November 2006. Over the whole measurement period, significant emissions of N 2 O and CO 2 were observed, whereas a net uptake of CH 4 was measured. N 2 O emissions were found to be highly episodic with one major emission pulse (up to 502 μg N 2 O-N m −2 h −1 ) following heavy rainfall. There was no significant difference in the net flux of GHGs from the biochar amended vs. the control plots. Our results demonstrate that intensively managed subtropical pastures on ferrosols in northern New South Wales of Australia can be a significant source of GHG. Our hypothesis that the application of biochar would lead to a reduction in emissions of GHG from soils was not supported in this field assessment. Additional studies with longer observation periods are needed to clarify the long term effect of biochar amendment on soil microbial processes and the emission of GHGs under field conditions.

Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N2O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N2O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N2O fluxes within 10% of the ‘best’ estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents—Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N2O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N2O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies.

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