Background HIV-1 viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not universally available. We examined monitoring of first-line and switching to second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa, 2004–2013. Methods Adult HIV-1 infected patients starting combination ART in 16 countries were included. Switching was defined as a change from a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen to a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen, with a change of ≥1 NRTI. Virological and immunological failures were defined per World Health Organization criteria. We calculated cumulative probabilities of switching and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing routine VL monitoring, targeted VL monitoring, CD4 cell monitoring and clinical monitoring, adjusted for programme and individual characteristics. Findings Of 297,825 eligible patients, 10,352 patients (3·5%) switched during 782,412 person-years of follow-up. Compared to CD4 monitoring hazard ratios for switching were 3·15 (95% CI 2·92–3·40) for routine VL, 1·21 (1·13–1·30) for targeted VL and 0·49 (0·43–0·56) for clinical monitoring. Overall 58.0% of patients with confirmed virological and 19·3% of patients with confirmed immunological failure switched within 2 years. Among patients who switched the percentage with evidence of treatment failure based on a single CD4 or VL measurement ranged from 32·1% with clinical to 84.3% with targeted VL monitoring. Median CD4 counts at switching were 215 cells/µl under routine VL monitoring but lower with other monitoring (114–133 cells/µl). Interpretation Overall few patients switched to second-line ART and switching occurred late in the absence of routine viral load monitoring. Switching was more common and occurred earlier with targeted or routine viral load testing.

Objectives To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC) and high-income (HIC) countries. Methods Patients aged ≥16 years starting cART in a clinic participating in a multi-cohort collaboration spanning six continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multi-level linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. Findings 379,865 patients from nine LIC, four LMIC, four UMIC and six HIC were included. In LIC the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/μl between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/μl (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/μl (53%) and 209 to 274 cells/μl (31%). In 2009, compared to LIC, median counts were 13 cells/μl (95% CI -56 to +30) lower in LMIC, 22 cells/μl (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC and 112 /μl (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/μl (95% CI +18 to +28) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/μl (95% CI +35 to +141) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared to countries with <40% coverage. Conclusions Median CD4 cell counts at start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/μl in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/μl in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

Background The risk of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) among HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not well defined in resource-limited settings. We studied KS incidence rates and associated risk factors in children and adults on ART in Southern Africa. Methods We included patient data of six ART programs in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We estimated KS incidence rates in patients on ART measuring time from 30 days after ART initiation to KS diagnosis, last follow-up visit, or death. We assessed risk factors (age, sex, calendar year, WHO stage, tuberculosis, and CD4 counts) using Cox models. Findings We analyzed data from 173,245 patients (61% female, 8% children aged <16 years) who started ART between 2004 and 2010. 564 incident cases were diagnosed during 343,927 person-years (pys). KS incidence rate overall was 164/100,000 pys (95% confidence interval [CI] 151–178). The incidence rate was highest 30 to 90 days after ART initiation (413/100,000 pys; 95% CI 342–497) and declined thereafter (86/100,000 pys[95% CI 71–105]>2 years after ART initiation). Male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.34; 95% CI 1.12–1.61), low current CD4 counts (≥500 cells/µL versus <50 cells/µL, adjusted HR 0.36; 95% CI 0.23–0.55) and age (5 to 9 years versus 30 to 39 years, adjusted HR 0.20; 95% CI 0.05–0.79) were relevant risk factors for developing KS. Interpretation Despite ART, KS risk in HIV-infected persons in Southern Africa remains high. Early HIV testing and maintaining high CD4 counts is needed to further reduce KS-related morbidity and mortality.

Although VL suppression rates were high, PI resistance was detected in 22% of participants with VLs ≥1000 cps/mL. To ensure long-term ART success, intensified support for adherence, VL and drug resistance testing, and third-line drugs will be necessary.

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