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In the mid-1990s, biologists conducting assessments of fish stocks in Lake Ontario reported finding alewives Alosa pseudoharengus, rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, and juvenile lake trout Salvelinus namaycush at greater depths than in the mid-1980s. To determine if depth distributions shifted coincident with the early 1990s colonization of Lake Ontario by exotic Dreissena mussels, we calculated mean depth of capture for each of the three species during trawl surveys conducted annually during 1978-1997 and examined the means for significant deviations from established patterns. We found that mean capture depth of alewives, rainbow smelt, and age-2 lake trout shifted deeper during the build up of the dreissenid population in Lake Ontario but that timing of the shift varied among seasons and species. Depth shifts occurred first for rainbow smelt and age-2 lake trout in June 1991. In 1992, alewives shifted deeper in June followed by age-2 lake trout in July-August. Finally, in 1993 and 1994, the distribution of lake trout and alewives shifted in April-May. Reasons why the three fishes moved to deeper water are not clear, but changes in distribution were not linked to temperature. Mean temperature of capture after the depth shift was significantly lower than before the depth shift except for alewives in April-May. Movement of alewives, rainbow smelt, and age-2 lake trout to colder, deeper water has the potential to alter growth and reproduction schedules by exposing the fish to different temperature regimes and to alter the food chain, increasing predation on Mysis relicta in deep water and decreasing alewife predation on lake trout fry over nearshore spawning grounds in spring.

The population of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake Ontario is of great concern to fishery managers because alewives are the principal prey of introduced salmonines and because alewives negatively influence many endemic fishes. We used spring bottom trawl catches of alewives to investigate the roles of stock size, climate, predation, and lake trophic status on recruitment of alewives to age 2 in Lake Ontario during 1978–2000. Climate was indexed from the temperature of water entering a south‐shore municipal treatment plant, lake trophic status was indexed by the mean concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in surface water in spring, and predation was indexed by the product of the number of salmonines stocked and relative, first‐year survival of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. A Ricker‐type parent–progeny model suggested that peak production of age‐1 alewives could occur over a broad range of spawning stock sizes, and the fit of the model was improved most by the addition of terms for spring water temperature and winter duration. With the addition of the two climate terms, the Ricker model indicated that when water was relatively warm in spring and the winter was relatively short, peak potential production of young was nine times higher than when water temperature and winters were average, and 73 times higher than when water was cold in spring and winters were long. Relative survival from age 1 to recruitment at age 2 was best described by a multiple linear regression with terms for adult abundance, TP, and predation. Mean recruitment of age‐2 fish in the 1978–1998 year‐classes predicted by using the two models in sequence was only about 20% greater than the observed mean recruitment. Model estimates fit the measured data exceptionally well for all but the largest four year‐classes, which suggests that the models will facilitate improvement in estimates of trophic transfer due to alewives.

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