There was a high rate of modification and discontinuation of HAART regimens in the first 12 months, particularly due to toxicities, patient choice or poor compliance.

SummaryBackgroundThe length of time that people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral load suppression will be able to continue before developing viral rebound is unknown. We aimed to investigate the rate of first viral rebound in people that have achieved initial suppression with ART, to determine factors associated with viral rebound, and to use these estimates to predict long-term durability of viral suppression.MethodsThe UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study is an ongoing multicentre cohort study that brings together in a standardised format data on people with HIV attending clinics around the UK. We included participants who started ART with three or more drugs and who had achieved viral suppression (≤50 copies per mL) by 9 months after the start of ART (baseline). Viral rebound was defined as the first single viral load of more than 200 copies per mL or treatment interruption (for ≥1 month). We investigated factors associated with viral rebound with Poisson regression. These results were used to calculate the rate of viral rebound according to several key factors, including age, calendar year at start of ART, and time since baseline.ResultsOf the 16 101 people included, 4519 had a first viral rebound over 58 038 person-years (7·8 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 7·6–8·0). Of the 4519 viral rebounds, 3105 (69%) were defined by measurement of a single viral load of more than 200 copies per mL, and 1414 (31%) by a documented treatment interruption. The rate of first viral rebound declined substantially over time until 7 years from baseline. The other factors associated with viral rebound were current age at follow-up and calendar year at ART initiation (p<0·0001) and HIV risk group (p<0·0001); higher pre-ART CD4 count (p=0·0008) and pre-ART viral load (p=0·0003) were associated with viral rebound in the multivariate analysis only. For 1322 (29%) of the 3105 people with observed viral rebound, the next viral load value after rebound was 50 copies per mL or less with no regimen change. For HIV-positive men who have sex with men, our estimates suggest that the probability of first viral rebound reaches a plateau of 1·4% per year after 45 years of age, and 1·0% when accounting for the fact that 29% of viral rebounds are temporary elevations.InterpretationA substantial proportion of people on ART will not have viral rebound over their lifetime, which has implications for people with HIV and the planning of future drug development.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

Background: The success of clinical care for human immunodeficiency virus infection may vary across demographic groups, because of patient-and health carerelated factors. Methods: A total of 2386 patients sexually infected with the human immunodeficiency virus were seen in a London clinic from July 1, 1999, to December 31, 2004. We examined demographic variation and trends over time in the prevalence of the following: (1) a CD4 cell count of 200/µL or less; (2) a viral load of greater than 50 copies/mL among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART); and (3) a viral load of greater than 50 copies/mL among patients receiving ART for 24 weeks or longer. Results: Subjects were homosexual men (63.1%), white heterosexual men (4.3%) and women (5.1%), and black African or other ethnicity heterosexual men (10.2%) and women (17.3%). The CD4 cell count at the first clinic visit was highest among homosexual men and lowest among black African heterosexual men. From 1999 to 2004, ART use increased from 61.9% to 75.5%. The prevalence of a CD4 cell count of 200/µL or less decreased from 19.6% to 9.0%. The prevalence of a viral load of greater than 50 copies/mL decreased from 36.9% to 14.5% among patients receiving ART, and from 31.2% to 10.1% among patients receiving ART for 24 weeks or longer. Demographic variation in the prevalence of each outcome was apparent among men throughout the period: homosexual men had the most favorable profile, and black African heterosexual men had the least favorable profile. Differences were much greater for low CD4 cell count than for raised viral load while receiving ART. There was no consistent demographic variation among women. Favorable trends over time occurred within each demographic group, and were as strong among black African patients as among other subgroups.

Only a small proportion of patients at our centre were not receiving ARV treatment in line with national guidelines. While genuine reasons may exist for these departures from optimal care, this may simply reflect the limitations of using observational databases when auditing treatment use in a clinic setting.