Risk perception and the desire to personalize and confirm warning information have been associated with protective action. Risk perception typically increases with close proximity to a threat, but research involving time, space and tornado risk perception has stopped short of attempting to define a distance at which an individual would believe they are personally at risk from a tornado. In this study, we surveyed 1023 individuals across the Southeastern United States at risk from tornadoes. The goal was to add to our understanding of the role of distance in tornado risk perception by quantifying an individual’s “worry distance.” The study examined an individual’s worry distance in multiple ways including three map-based warning scenarios. Our results indicated that participants would worry about their house or loved ones or take shelter in a tornado if it was on average within 11-12 miles. These distances were greater than the 7-8 miles at which they believed they could see, hear or feel the effects of a tornado. There was a considerable amount of variation in the self-reported distances, some of which can be explained by past exposure. When provided tornado warning maps with varying scales or county borders, neither map scale nor the presence of a border had an influence. The lack of any influence of map scale raises the question of how individuals consider objective geospatial distance when using a map-based warning for familiar or novel locations.

While there is clear evidence that proximity to a tornado or forecasted tornado increases an individual’s risk perception, the specific relationships between risk personalization and spatial variables are unclear. It has also been established that one’s own evaluation of distance does not always match objective measurement. This study sought to explain the differences in the distance at which an individual would personalize the risk from a tornado across personally relevant geospatial factors such as the distance between places frequented (e.g., home and work), urban/rural classification of the area, and the length of residence in the county. A survey of 1023 respondents across eight states (AL, AR, GA, KY, LA, MS, MO, and TN) was used to obtain risk personalization distances, which were distinguished as “worry distances” (the distances at which one would worry about their house or loved ones, or take protective action) and “confirmation distances” (the distances at which one would expect to see, hear or feel the effects of a tornado). We found that individuals who traveled greater distances traveled more frequently to the grocery and another location, those who self-defined their area as urban, and those with advanced degrees had increased risk personalization distances. Lengthier residency in the county influenced these distances as well. Future research is required to better comprehend the relationship of place, risk perception, and geographic mobility on protective action when a tornado occurs.

Due to the current use and reliance on tornado warning polygons, several published articles have concentrated on themes related to risk perception and interpretation of risk within and outside of polygons. Despite the general success of warning polygons, not everybody is able to spatially estimate their risk by looking at maps with tornado warning polygons. Using polygons in conjunction with radar images can improve comprehension and better inform protective action decision-making for tornado warnings. Additionally, a potential latent area of research is how past tornado tracks and climatological knowledge about tornado path directions may influence tornado risk perception and protective action decision-making. In this study, we surveyed 1023 individuals across the southeastern United States. Participants were asked to rate their level of concern for a tornadic supercell moving toward two locations. They were also asked to name the direction tornadoes usually come from and travel toward in their counties. Results indicated significantly more concern about the radar reflectivity within the supercell than concern about the location of the hook echo. Additionally, the perceived directions of tornado paths across the region were inaccurate with 75 percent of the sample either not answering, indicating that they did not know the most common direction for tornado paths, or answering that tornadoes travel in uncommon or unrealistic path directions. The Atlanta metropolitan area was used as a case study to illustrate inaccurate perceptions of path directions.

Due to the current use and reliance on tornado warning polygons, several published articles have concentrated on themes related to risk perception and interpretation of risk within and outside of polygons. Despite the general success of warning polygons, not everybody is able to spatially estimate their risk by looking at maps with tornado warning polygons. Using polygons in conjunction with radar images can improve comprehension and better inform protective action decision-making for tornado warnings. Additionally, a potential latent area of research is how past tornado tracks and climatological knowledge about tornado path directions may influence tornado risk perception and protective action decision-making. In this study, we surveyed 1,023 individuals across the southeastern United States. Participants were asked to rate their level of concern for a tornadic supercell moving toward two locations. They were also asked to name the direction tornadoes usually come from and travel toward in their counties. Results indicated significantly more concern about the radar reflectivity within the supercell than concern about the location of the hook echo. Additionally, the perceived directions of tornado paths across the region were inaccurate with 75% of the sample either not answering, indicating that they did not know the most common direction for tornado paths, or answering that tornadoes travel in uncommon or unrealistic path directions. The Atlanta metropolitan area was used as a case study to illustrate inaccurate perceptions of path directions.