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Background Understanding changes in nursing home (NH) resident pain over time would provide a more informed perspective, allowing opportunities to alter the course of illness, plan care, and set priorities. Therefore, the purpose of this analysis was to identify and characterize clinically meaningful, dynamic pain trajectories in NH residents. Methods Retrospective longitudinal analysis of NH resident pain scores with a length of stay >100 days (N = 4864). Group‐based trajectory modeling was applied to Minimum Data Set 3.0 assessments to identify pain trajectories. Trajectories were then characterized using unadjusted and adjusted cross‐sectional associations between residents' demographic and clinical characteristics and their pain trajectory. Results We identified four distinct trajectories: (1) consistent pain absence (48.9%), (2) decreasing‐increasing pain presence (21.8%), (3) increasing‐decreasing pain presence (15.3%), and (4) persistent pain presence (14.0%). Demographics of younger age and living in a rural area were associated with the persistent pain presence trajectory. Clinical variables of obesity and intact cognition were associated with being in the persistent pain presence trajectory. A smaller proportion of residents with moderately or severely impaired cognition were in any of the trajectory groups with pain. Conclusions We identified and characterized four pain trajectories among NH residents, including persistent pain presence which was associated with demographic characteristics (younger, female, rural) and clinical factors (obese, fracture, contracture). Moreover, residents with a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease or dementia were less likely to be in any of the three trajectories with pain, likely representing the difficulty in evaluating pain in these residents. It is important that NH staff understand, recognize, and respond to the factors associated with the identified pain trajectories to improve mitigation of potentially persistent pain (e.g., hip fracture, contracture) or improve proxy pain assessment skills for residents at risk for under reporting of pain (e.g., Alzheimer's Disease).

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