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There is a general assumption that intraspecific populations originating from relatively arid climates will be better adapted to cope with the expected increase in drought from climate change. For ecologically and economically important species, more comprehensive, genecological studies that utilize large distributions of populations and direct measures of traits associated with drought-resistance are needed to empirically support this assumption because of the implications for the natural or assisted regeneration of species. We conducted a space-for-time substitution, common garden experiment with 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) growing at three test sites with distinct summer temperature and precipitation (referred to as 'cool/moist', 'moderate', or 'warm/dry') to test the hypotheses that (i) there is large genetic variation among populations and regions in traits associated with drought-resistance, (ii) the patterns of genetic variation are related to the native source-climate of each population, in particular with summer temperature and precipitation, (iii) the differences among populations and relationships with climate are stronger at the warm/dry test site owing to greater expression of drought-resistance traits (i.e., a genotype × environment interaction). During midsummer 2012, we measured the rate of water loss after stomatal closure (transpiration(min)), water deficit (% below turgid saturation), and specific leaf area (SLA, cm(2) g(-1)) on new growth of sapling branches. There was significant genetic variation in all plant traits, with populations originating from warmer and drier climates having greater drought-resistance (i.e., lower transpiration(min), water deficit and SLA), but these trends were most clearly expressed only at the warm/dry test site. Contrary to expectations, populations from cooler climates also had greater drought-resistance across all test sites. Multiple regression analysis indicated that Douglas-fir populations from regions with relatively cool winters and arid summers may be most adapted to cope with drought conditions that are expected in the future.

Many temperate and boreal tree species have a chilling requirement, that is, they need to experience cold temperatures during fall and winter to burst bud normally in the spring. Results from trials with 11 Pacific Northwest tree species are consistent with the concept that plants can accumulate both chilling and forcing units simultaneously during the dormant season and they exhibit a tradeoff between amount of forcing and chilling. That is, the parallel model of chilling and forcing was effective in predicting budburst and well chilled plants require less forcing for bud burst than plants which have received less chilling. Genotypes differed in the shape of the possibility line which describes the quantitative tradeoff between chilling and forcing units. Plants which have an obligate chilling requirement (Douglas-fir, western hemlock, western larch, pines, and true firs) and received no or very low levels of chilling did not burst bud normally even with long photoperiods. Pacific madrone and western redcedar benefited from chilling in terms of requiring less forcing to promote bud burst but many plants burst bud normally without chilling. Equations predicting budburst were developed for each species in our trials for a portion of western North America under current climatic conditions and for 2080. Mean winter temperature was predicted to increase 3.2–5.5°C and this change resulted in earlier predicted budburst for Douglas-fir throughout much of our study area (up to 74 days earlier) but later budburst in some southern portions of its current range (up to 48 days later) as insufficient chilling is predicted to occur. Other species all had earlier predicted dates of budburst by 2080 than currently. Recent warming trends have resulted in earlier budburst for some woody plant species; however, the substantial winter warming predicted by some climate models will reduce future chilling in some locations such that budburst will not consistently occur earlier.