Defended species are often conspicuous and this is thought to be an honest signal of defences, i.e. more toxic prey are more conspicuous. Neotropical butterflies of the large Ithomiini tribe numerically dominate communities of chemically defended butterflies and may thus drive the evolution of mimetic warning patterns. Although many species are brightly coloured, most are transparent to some degree. The evolution of transparency from a warning-coloured ancestor is puzzling as it is generally assumed to be involved in concealment. Here, we show that transparent Ithomiini species are indeed less detectable by avian predators (i.e. concealment). Surprisingly, transparent species are not any less unpalatable, and may in fact be more unpalatable than opaque species, the latter spanning a larger range of unpalatability. We put forth various hypotheses to explain the evolution of weak aposematic signals in these butterflies and other cryptic defended prey. Our study is an important step in determining the selective pressures and constraints that regulate the interaction between conspicuousness and unpalatability.

Abstract. The impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine net primary production (NPP) is a reason for concern because changing NPP will have widespread consequences for marine ecosystems and their associated services. Projections by the current generation of Earth system models have suggested decreases in global NPP in response to future climate change, albeit with very large uncertainties. Here, we make use of two versions of the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPSL-CM) that simulate divergent NPP responses to similar high-emission scenarios in the 21st century and identify nitrogen fixation as the main driver of these divergent NPP responses. Differences in the way N fixation is parameterised in the marine biogeochemical component PISCES (Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies) of the IPSL-CM versions lead to N-fixation rates that are either stable or double over the course of the 21st century, resulting in decreasing or increasing global NPP, respectively. An evaluation of these two model versions does not help constrain future NPP projection uncertainties. However, the use of a more comprehensive version of PISCES, with variable nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios as well as a revised parameterisation of the temperature sensitivity of N fixation, suggests only moderate changes in globally averaged N fixation in the 21st century. This leads to decreasing global NPP, in line with the model-mean changes of a recent multi-model intercomparison. Lastly, despite contrasting trends in NPP, all our model versions simulate similar and significant reductions in planktonic biomass. This suggests that projected plankton biomass may be a more robust indicator than NPP of the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems across models.