While it is widely recognized that financial stock portfolios can be stabilized through diverse investments, it is also possible that certain habitats can function as natural portfolios that stabilize ecosystem processes. Here we propose and examine the hypothesis that free-flowing river networks act as such portfolios and confer stability through their integration of upstream geological, hydrological, and biological diversity. We compiled a spatially (142 sites) and temporally (1980-present) extensive data set on fisheries, water flows, and temperatures, from sites within one of the largest watersheds in the world that remains without dams on its mainstem, the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. We found that larger catchments had more stable fisheries catches, water flows, and water temperatures than smaller catchments. These data provide evidence that free-flowing river networks function as hierarchically nested portfolios with stability as an emergent property. Thus, free-flowing river networks can represent a natural system for buffering variation and extreme events.

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Rare phenotypes and behaviors adopted by only few individuals in a population are often overlooked, yet they may serve a heightened role for many organisms coping with warming climates. In threatened spring-run Chinook salmon spawning at the edge of the species range (Central Valley, CA USA), latemigrating juveniles were critical to cohort success in years characterized by multi-year droughts and ocean heatwaves. Late migrants rely on cool over-summer river temperatures, and are thus increasingly rare due to the combined effects of warming and dam construction. Yet our results suggest, the further loss of this within-population diversity could have critical impacts to their persistence in a warming climate. Our modeling predicts that thermally appropriate river conditions to support this phenotype will shrink rapidly in the future, and will primarily occur above impassable dams. Importantly, while late migrants dominated returns in some years, interannual variability in individual growth rates and migratory strategies suggests the importance of portfolio effects for these at-risk populations.Reconnecting and maintaining diverse habitat mosaics to support phenotypic and phenological diversity will be integral to the long term persistence of this species.

Conservation successes can and do happen, however, the process by which society achieves them remains unclear. Using a novel culturomics approach, we analyse word usage within digitized texts to assess the chronological order in which scientists, the public, and policymakers engage in the conservation process for three prominent conservation issues: acid rain in North America, global DDT contamination, and the overexploitation of African elephants for ivory. Variation in the order and magnitude of sector responses among the three issues emphasizes that there are multiple pathways to conservation success and that science is just one component. Our study highlights that while scientists can initiate the process, policy change does not occur in the absence of public interest. We suggest that the fate of conservation action is not solely determined by the scientific soundness of the conservation plan, but rather requires the engagement of scientists, public, and policy makers alike.

Expression of phenotypic plasticity depends on reaction norms adapted to historic selective regimes; anthropogenic changes in these selection regimes necessitate contemporary evolution or declines in productivity and possibly extinction. Adaptation of conditional strategies following a change in the selection regime requires evolution of either the environmentally influenced cue (e.g., size-at-age) or the state (e.g., size threshold) at which an individual switches between alternative tactics. Using a population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) introduced above a barrier waterfall in 1910, we evaluate how the conditional strategy to migrate evolves in response to selection against migration. We created 9 families and 917 offspring from 14 parents collected from the above- and below-barrier populations. After 1 year of common garden-rearing above-barrier offspring were 11% smaller and 32% lighter than below-barrier offspring. Using a novel analytical approach, we estimate that the mean size at which above-barrier fish switch between the resident and migrant tactic is 43% larger than below-barrier fish. As a result, above-barrier fish were 26% less likely to express the migratory tactic. Our results demonstrate how rapid and opposing changes in size-at-age and threshold size contribute to the contemporary evolution of a conditional strategy and indicate that migratory barriers may elicit rapid evolution toward the resident life history on timescales relevant for conservation and management of conditionally migratory species.