Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet-dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder-days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning-ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters. K E Y W O R D S cumulative rainfall anomaly, grassland, precipitation, savanna, wildfire S U PP O RTI N G I N FO R M ATI O N Additional supporting information may be found online in the Supporting Information section at the end of the article. How to cite this article: Fill JM, Davis CN, Crandall RM. Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning-ignited fire seasons. Glob Change Biol. 2019;25:3562-3569. https ://doi.
Decision support systems—collections of related information located in a central place to be used for decision-making—can be used as platforms from which climate information can be shared with decision-makers. Unfortunately, these tools are not often evaluated, meaning developers do not know how useful or usable their products are. In this study, a web-based climate decision support system (DSS) for foresters in the southeastern United States was evaluated by using eye-tracking technology. The initial study design was exploratory and focused on assessing usability concerns within the website. Results showed differences between male and female forestry experts in their eye-tracking behavior and in their success with completing tasks and answering questions related to the climate information presented in the DSS. A follow-up study, using undergraduate students from a large university in the southeastern United States, aimed to determine whether similar gender differences existed and could be detected and, if so, whether the cause(s) could be determined. The second evaluation, similar to the first, showed that males and females focused their attention on different aspects of the website; males focused more on the maps depicting climate information while females focused more on other aspects of the website (e.g., text, search bars, and color bars). DSS developers should consider the possibility of gender differences when designing a web-based DSS and include website features that draw user attention to important DSS elements to effectively support various populations of users.
Drought is a complex phenomenon that is difficult to characterize and monitor. Accurate and timely communication is necessary to ensure that affected sectors and the public can respond and manage associated risks and impacts. To that end, myriad drought indicators, indices, and other tools have been developed and made available, but understanding and using this information can challenge end users who are unfamiliar with the information or presentation, or for decision makers with expertise in areas outside of climate and drought. This article highlights a project that aimed to improve the usability and dissemination of drought information for North Carolina (NC) audiences by addressing specific needs for a better understanding of how drought is monitored, the climatic and environmental conditions that can cause or worsen drought, and the impacts occurring in NC’s different sectors and sub-regions. Conducted to support NC’s official, statewide drought monitoring process, the project’s methods and results have utility for other geographies and contexts. The project team designed an iterative process to engage users in the development, evaluation, refinement, and distribution of new resources. Featured products include the Weekly Drought Update infographic, which explains the factors used to determine NC’s drought status, and the Short-Range Outlook infographic, a synthesis of National Weather Service forecasts. Effective strategies included using stakeholders’ preferred and existing channels to disseminate products, emphasizing impacts relevant to different user groups (such as agriculture, forestry, water resources) rather than indices, and employing concise narratives and visualizations to translate technical and scientific information.
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