Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understanding of cloud, aerosol, precipitation and radiative processes, and their interactions. Projects between 2016 and 2018 used in-situ probes, radar, lidar and other instruments to make comprehensive measurements of thermodynamics, surface radiation, cloud, precipitation, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase cloudsnucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase clouds common to this pristine environment. Data including soundings were collected from the NSF/NCAR G-V aircraft flying north-south gradients south of Tasmania, at Macquarie Island, and on the RV Investigator and RSV Aurora Australis. Synergistically these data characterize boundary layer and free troposphere environmental properties, and represent the most comprehensive data of this type available south of the oceanic polar front, in the cold sector of SO cyclones, and across seasons.Results show a largely pristine environments with numerous small and few large aerosols above cloud, suggesting new particle formation and limited long-range transport from continents, high variability in CCN and cloud droplet concentrations, and ubiquitous supercooled water in thin, multi-layered clouds, often with small-scale generating cells near cloud top. These observations demonstrate how cloud properties depend on aerosols while highlighting the importance of confirmed low clouds were responsible for radiation biases. The combination of models and observations is examining how aerosols and meteorology couple to control SO water and energy budgets.
The “current icing potential” (CIP) algorithm combines satellite, radar, surface, lightning, and pilot-report observations with model output to create a detailed three-dimensional hourly diagnosis of the potential for the existence of icing and supercooled large droplets. It uses a physically based situational approach that is derived from basic and applied cloud physics, combined with forecaster and onboard flight experience from field programs. Both fuzzy logic and decision-tree logic are applied in this context. CIP determines the locations of clouds and precipitation and then estimates the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets within a given airspace. First developed in the winter of 1997/98, CIP became an operational National Weather Service and Federal Aviation Administration product in 2002, providing real-time diagnoses that allow users to make route-specific decisions to avoid potentially hazardous icing. The CIP algorithm, its individual components, and the logic behind them are described.
Because of a lack of regular, direct measurements, little information is available about the frequency and spatial and temporal distribution of icing conditions aloft, including supercooled large drops (SLD). Research aircraft provide in situ observations of these conditions, but the sample set is small and can be biased. Other techniques must be used to create a more unbiased climatology. The presence and absence of icing and SLD aloft can be inferred using surface weather observations in conjunction with vertical profiles of temperature and moisture. In this study, such a climatology was created using 14 yr of coincident, 12-hourly Canadian and continental U.S. surface weather reports and balloonborne soundings. The conditions were found to be most common along the Pacific Coast from Alaska to Oregon, and in a large swath from the Canadian Maritimes to the Midwest. Prime locations migrated seasonally. Most SLD events appeared to occur below 4 km, were less than 1 km deep, and were formed via the collision-coalescence process.
The atmosphere above the Southern Ocean (SO) has very high cloud coverage, with the fraction of clouds below 3 km in altitude approaching 80% (Haynes et al., 2011;Mace et al., 2009). Many of these low boundary layer (BL) clouds are associated with large and complex extratropical cyclones that are prevalent over the SO (McFarquhar et al., 2021), and are one of the largest sources of disagreement among General Circulation Models (GCMs) (Bony et al., 2006;Vial et al., 2013). An understanding of the processes responsible for the complicated structure of SO BL clouds is critical for improving the parameterizations that are used to represent such processes in GCMs that model cloud radiative feedbacks in a rapidly warming global climate (McCoy et al., 2015;Trenberth & Fasullo, 2010), as needed to better project future climate change (IPCC, 2021).Past studies have shown that supercooled liquid water (SLW; liquid water at subfreezing temperatures) is especially common in SO clouds, and more prevalent than at similar latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), likely due to the lack of ice nucleating particles, which tend to increase glaciation rates, over the SO (Gong
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