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The expansion of agricultural, forest plantation, and urban areas is among the main drivers of worldwide land use/cover change. However, little is known about the changes in the extent of highly profitable crops in the temperate zones of South America and their association with other land use/cover changes, especially in south-central Chile, which has experienced massive changes in recent decades. In this context, we aimed to assess land use/cover and fruit crop area changes at the regional and county levels in the Araucanía region, Chile. Hence, the quantity and location of past and future changes were identified using cross-tabulation Markov chains and cellular automata. The results showed that agricultural land and meadows have decreased by 18% and 26%, respectively, between 1997 and 2013, mainly due to the expansion of forest plantations and urban areas. However, the fruit crop area increased by 645% between the years 2000 and 2019 and will continue increasing to 2033. These changes modified the relative weights of economic activities within the region, changing from cattle raising and marginal agriculture to more profitable activities such as fruit crops and forest plantations. Finally, this work shows a need to move toward the spatial monitoring of agriculture and fruit crops within the country.

Biosphere Reserves are one of the main policy instruments for protecting areas of high ecological value. However, more information is needed about land use/cover changes within Biosphere Reserves, specifically considering dynamics in their core, buffer, and transition zones. This study aimed to analyse the dynamics of land use/cover change between 1961 and 2018 and assess future changes from 2018 to 2034 in part of the Araucarias Biosphere Reserve located in south-central Chile. Land use/cover maps were obtained through photointerpretation of aerial photography and satellite images. Land use/cover transitions, gains, losses, and net changes were then calculated for the periods 1961–1974, 1987–2002, and 2002–2018. Futures changes until 2034 were simulated using Markov chains and cellular automata. Results showed that between 1961 and 1987, 95% of the study area remained stable, with small changes associated with the succession of natural vegetation and the abandonment of areas dedicated to crops and livestock. However, between 1987 and 2018, an increased in anthropogenic activity contributed to two wildfire that affected large areas of old-growth forest in the core and buffer zones. The results indicate that the conservation of the core area of the biosphere reserve is threatened by the lack of territorial planning instruments to organise the activities carried out in the buffer and transition areas of the Biosphere Reserve. In the absence of new wildfires, most of the natural vegetation may recover through natural or assisted ecological restoration.

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