This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are limited by the availability of reliable emission factors. However, potentially more influential for human exposure than changes to the physical environment are changes in human behaviour. This includes the gradual displacement of traditional food items by imported foods from other regions, driven by prey availability and/or consumer preference, but also the possibility of increased exposure to chemicals used in packaging materials and other consumer products, driven by dietary and lifestyle choices.

Background: Body burdens of persistent bioaccumulative contaminants estimated from the cross-sectional biomonitoring of human populations are often plotted against age. Such relationships have previously been assumed to reflect the role of age in bioaccumulation.Objectives: We used a mechanistic modeling approach to reproduce concentration-versus-age relationships and investigate factors that influence them.Method: CoZMoMAN is an environmental fate and human food chain bioaccumulation model that estimates time trends in human body burdens in response to time-variant environmental emissions. Trends of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener 153 concentrations versus age for population cross sections were estimated using simulated longitudinal data for individual women born at different times. The model was also used to probe the influence of partitioning and degradation properties, length of emissions, and model assumptions regarding lipid content and liver metabolism on concentration–age trends of bioaccumulative and persistent contaminants.Results: Body burden–age relationships for population cross sections and individuals over time are not equivalent. The time lapse between the peak in emissions and sample collection for biomonitoring is the most influential factor controlling the shape of concentration–age trends for chemicals with human metabolic half-lives longer than 1 year. Differences in observed concentration–age trends for PCBs and polybrominated diphenyl ethers are consistent with differences in emission time trends and human metabolic half-lives.Conclusions: Bioaccumulation does not monotonically increase with age. Our model suggests that the main predictors of cross-sectional body burden trends with age are the amount of time elapsed after peak emissions and the human metabolic and environmental degradation rates.

BackgroundReproductive behaviors—such as age of childbearing, parity, and breast-feeding prevalence—have changed over the same historical time period as emissions of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and may produce intergenerational differences in human PCB exposure.ObjectivesOur goal in this study was to estimate prenatal, postnatal, and lifetime PCB exposures for women at different ages according to year of birth, and to evaluate the impact of reproductive characteristics on intergenerational differences in exposure.MethodsWe used the time-variant mechanistic model CoZMoMAN to calculate human bioaccumulation of PCBs, assuming both hypothetical constant and realistic time-variant emissions.ResultsAlthough exposure primarily depends on when an individual was born relative to the emission history of PCBs, reproductive behaviors can have a significant impact. Our model suggests that a mother’s reproductive history has a greater influence on the prenatal and postnatal exposures of her children than it does on her own cumulative lifetime exposure. In particular, a child’s birth order appears to have a strong influence on their prenatal exposure, whereas postnatal exposure is determined by the type of milk (formula or breast milk) fed to the infant.ConclusionsPrenatal PCB exposure appears to be delayed relative to the time of PCB emissions, particularly among those born after the PCB production phaseout. Consequently, the health repercussions of environmental PCBs can be expected to persist for several decades, despite bans on their production for > 40 years.