The analysis of variation of risk for a given disease in space and time is a key issue in descriptive epidemiology. When the data are scarce, maximum likelihood estimates of the area-specific risk and of its linear time-trend can be seriously affected by random variation. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model in which both area-specific intercept and trend are modelled as random effects and correlation between them is allowed for. This model is an extension of that originally proposed for disease mapping. It is illustrated by the analysis of the cumulative prevalence of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus as observed at the military examination of 18-year-old conscripts born in Sardinia during the period 1936-1971. Data concerning the genetic differentiation of the Sardinian population are used to interpret the results.

This paper presents a statistical approach, originally developed for mapping disease risk, to ecological regression analysis in the presence of spatial autocorrelated extra-Poisson variation. An insight into the effect of allowing for spatial autocorrelation on the relationship between disease rates and explanatory variables is given. Examples based on cancer frequency in Scotland and Sardinia are used to illustrate the interpretation of regression coefficient and further methodological issues.

In the fully Bayesian (FB) approach to disease mapping the choice of the hyperprior distribution of the dispersion parameter is a key issue. In this context we investigated the sensitivity of the rate ratio estimates to the choice of the hyperprior via a simulation study. We also compared the performance of the FB approach to mapping disease risk to the conventional approach of mapping maximum likelihood (ML) estimates and p-values. The study was modelled on the incidence data of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) as observed in the communes of Sardinia.

Purpose: Sodium fluorescein is a dye that, intravenously injected, selectively accumulates in high-grade glioma (HGG) tissue through a damaged blood-brain barrier. In this article, the final results of a multicentric prospective phase II trial (FLUO-GLIO) on fluorescein-guided HGG resection through a dedicated filter on the surgical microscope were reported.Methods: Patients with suspected HGGs considered suitable for removal were eligible to participate in this trial. Fluorescein was intravenously injected at a dose of 5 to 10 mg/kg. The primary endpoint was the percentage of patients with histologically confirmed HGGs, without contrast-enhancing tumor at the immediate postoperative MRI. Secondary endpoints were PFS, residual tumor on postoperative MRI, overall survival, neurologic deficits, and fluorescein-related toxicity. The sensitivity and specificity of fluorescein in identifying tumor tissue were estimated by fluorescent and nonfluorescent biopsies at the tumor margin. The study was registered on the European Regulatory Authorities website (EudraCT 2011-002527-18).Results: Fifty-seven patients aged 45 to 75 years were screened for participation, and 46 were considered for primary and secondary endpoints. Mean preoperative tumor volume was 28.75 cm 3 (range, 1.3-87.8 cm 3 ). Thirty-eight patients (82.6%) underwent a complete tumor removal. Median follow-up was 11 months. PFS-6 and PFS-12 were 56.6% and 15.2%. Median survival was 12 months. No adverse reaction related to SF administration was recorded. The sensitivity and specificity of fluorescein in identifying tumor tissue were respectively 80.8% and 79.1%.Conclusions: Fluorescein-guided technique with a dedicated filter on the surgical microscope is safe and enables a high percentage of contrast-enhancing tumor in patients with HGGs.