Most existing works using a displacement estimation method to estimate the CO 2 emissions abated by wind energy are based on the current operating principles of the power system. They consider a fixed displacement emission factor since wind energy is assumed to replace high-carbon generation. This method may be unsuitable in the long run when the energy mix of most countries becomes more decarbonised. Consequently, wind energy would replace those technologies becoming increasingly predominant in the future, i.e. lower polluting fossil fuels such as natural gas and even other less competitive low-carbon technologies. In order to consider this effect, this paper proposes a new method that estimates a range of potential CO 2 emissions abated by wind energy based on two dynamic displacement emission factors, which are periodically updated according to the evolution of the future energy mix. Such factors represent an upper and a lower limit of CO 2 emissions avoided. The method is validated in the case study of the European Union over the period 2015–2050. The results show that the annual displacement emission factor by wind energy may vary from about 422 to 741 t CO 2 /GWh in 2015 to around 222–515 t CO 2 /GWh in 2050. The total CO 2 abatement ranges from about 6600 to 13100 Mt CO 2 in the period 2015–2050.

China is on track to achieve global industrial leadership in key sectors 19.1 China is undergoing horizontal structural change to attain global leadership in new industries 19.2 Chinese patents and scientific specialisation converge the EU in natural and computer science but diverge in other areas 19.3 Chinese export and technological competitiveness move hand in hand 19.4 Expanding industries with the highest all-encompassing gains for the whole ecosystem Endnotes References List of tables and figures Acknowledgements Executive Summary Trade balance EU trade balance with China (gross) -14,672.20 -67,042.80 EU trade balance with China (in value added terms) -9,987.00 -49,167.20

China is on track to achieve global industrial leadership in key sectors 19.1 China is undergoing horizontal structural change to attain global leadership in new industries 19.2 Chinese patents and scientific specialisation converge the EU in natural and computer science but diverge in other areas 19.3 Chinese export and technological competitiveness move hand in hand 19.4 Expanding industries with the highest all-encompassing gains for the whole ecosystem Endnotes References List of tables and figures Acknowledgements Executive Summary Trade balance EU trade balance with China (gross) -14,672.20 -67,042.80 EU trade balance with China (in value added terms) -9,987.00 -49,167.20

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