Forecasting large and fast variations of wind power (the so-called ramps) helps achieve the integration of large amounts of wind energy. This paper presents a survey on wind power ramp forecasting, reflecting the increasing interest on this topic observed since 2007. Three main aspects were identified from the literature: wind power ramp definition, ramp underlying meteorological causes and experiences in predicting ramps. In this framework, we additionally outline a number of recommendations and potential lines of research.
Feed-in-tariff (FIT) schemes have been widely employed to promote renewable energy deployment. While FITs may be perceived by consumers as an extra cost, renewable energies cause a noticeable price reduction in wholesale electricity markets. We analyse both effects for the case of the Spanish electricity market during 2010. In particular, we examine the level of FITs that makes savings and extra costs to be similar on an hourly basis. Results are obtained for a wide range of renewable generation scenarios. It is found that FITs with null extra costs for consumers are in the range of 50-80 e/MWh. Some of the sideeffects of a high penetration of renewable energy in the market are analysed in detail and discussed.
Two alternative paths to achieve highly-renewable electricity generation in peninsular Spain are investigated in this paper. Every transition path comprises a description of the installed and decommissioned generation and storage capacities, from 2017 to 2030, as well as a hypothesis on the evolution of the electricity demand. The electricity mix for every hour within the transition path is determined through a dispatch algorithm that prioritízes electricity from renewable energy sources. The simulation is run for 900 different combinations of time series representing the hourly capacity factors of different technologies, as well as the electricity demand. This robust approach allows the evaluation of the transition paths based on the statístícal distribution of several deflned assessment criteria, such as security of supply, C0 2 emissions or renewable share in electricity generation. The feasibility of a Spanish power system with high renewable penetration is investigated not only in a future reference year but throughout the transition path. In particular, a progressive and simultaneous phase-out of nuclear and coal power plants in the short-term is proven to be feasible. Furthermore, the results sensitívity is analyzed including scenarios with a delayed nuclear phase-out, lower hydroelectricity generation due to more frequent and severe droughts caused by climate change and higher annual increment for the electricity demand. Authors Región Spatial resolution Time series Scenario where results are simulated Time-step Aim Rasmussen et al. [27] Europe One no de 8 (2000-2007) No time reference lh Least-cost solution Eriksen et al. [6] Europe One-node-per-country network 8 (2000-2007) No time reference lh Least-cost solution Schlachtberger et al. [7] Europe One-node-per-country network 1 (2011) 95% C02 abatement lh Least-cost solution Schlachtberger et al. [49] Europe One-node-per-country network 4 (2011-2014) 95% C02 abatement lh Least-cost solution Brown et al. [50] Europe One-node-per-country network 1 (2011) 95% C02 abatement lh Least-cost solution Collins et al. [28] Europe One-node-per-country network 30 (1985-2014) 5 reference scenarios (2030) lh Scenario comparison Güs etal. [51] Europe 15 regions 1 No time reference lh Least-cost solution Brancucci et al. [5] Europe One-node-per-country network 1 (2010) 2025 lh Connolly et al.
Wind power probabilistic forecast is being used as input in several decisionmaking problems, such as stochastic unit commitment, operating reserve setting and electricity market bidding. This work introduces a new on-line quantile regression model based on the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) framework. Its application to the field of wind power forecasting
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