No abstract

The performance of five global coupled climate models in simulating temporal trends in annual indices of extremes in surface temperature and precipitation during the second half of the 20th century is examined. The selected models are all represented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Linear trend patterns for individual model runs along with single‐ and multimodel ensemble mean trend patterns are objectively compared against corresponding observed trend fields. Some positive effects of the multimodel “super‐ensemble” approach were found when there was reasonable skill in contributing members.

No abstract

No abstract

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme’s (WWRP) Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed program (FROST-2014) was aimed at the advancement and demonstration of state-of-the-art nowcasting and short-range forecasting systems for winter conditions in mountainous terrain. The project field campaign was held during the 2014 XXII Olympic and XI Paralympic Winter Games and preceding test events in Sochi, Russia. An enhanced network of in situ and remote sensing observations supported weather predictions and their verification. Six nowcasting systems (model based, radar tracking, and combined nowcasting systems), nine deterministic mesoscale numerical weather prediction models (with grid spacings down to 250 m), and six ensemble prediction systems (including two with explicitly simulated deep convection) participated in FROST-2014. The project provided forecast input for the meteorological support of the Sochi Olympic Games. The FROST-2014 archive of winter weather observations and forecasts is a valuable information resource for mesoscale predictability studies as well as for the development and validation of nowcasting and forecasting systems in complex terrain. The resulting innovative technologies, exchange of experience, and professional developments contributed to the success of the Olympics and left a post-Olympic legacy.