This paper is the primary deliverable of the very first NASA Living With a Star Institute Working Group, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Working Group. The paper provides a broad overview of the current status and future challenges pertaining to the science, engineering, and applications of the GIC problem. Science is understood here as the basic space and Earth sciences research that allows improved understanding and physics‐based modeling of the physical processes behind GIC. Engineering, in turn, is understood here as the “impact” aspect of GIC. Applications are understood as the models, tools, and activities that can provide actionable information to entities such as power systems operators for mitigating the effects of GIC and government agencies for managing any potential consequences from GIC impact to critical infrastructure. Applications can be considered the ultimate goal of our GIC work. In assessing the status of the field, we quantify the readiness of various applications in the mitigation context. We use the Applications Readiness Level (ARL) concept to carry out the quantification.
On 13 March 1989, the largest magnetic storm of the last century caused widespread effects on power systems including a blackout of the Hydro-Québec system. Since then this event has become the archetypal disturbance for examining the geomagnetic hazard to power systems. However, even 30 years on from 1989, the story of exactly what happened in March 1989 is far from complete. This paper reexamines the information available about the March 1989 event and uses this to construct a timeline and description of the space weather phenomena and how they caused the power system effects. The evidence shows that the disturbance was caused by two coronal mass ejections (CMEs): the first associated with a X4.5 flare on 10 March and the second linked to a M7.3 flare on 12 March. The arrival of the interplanetary CME shock fronts caused storm sudden commencements at 01.27 and 07.43 UT on 13 March. The transit time and speed of the first (second) interplanetary CME shock are 54.5 hr (31.5 hr) and 760 km/s (1,320 km/s). Empirical relations are used to estimate solar wind speed and southward interplanetary magnetic field, Bs, and give values of v = 980 km/s, Bs = 40 to 60 nT at the peak of the storm. Key findings are that the second storm sudden commencement occurred at the same time as the substorm that impacted the Hydro-Québec system and indicates that external triggering of the substorm may have contributed to a faster substorm onset than might otherwise have occurred. This caused the production of larger geomagnetically induced currents that caused the Hydro-Québec blackout. The March 1989 storm had the largest recorded value of the Dst index representing the size of the magnetic storm main phase, but the Hydro-Québec blackout occurred early in the storm when the Dst value was less disturbed. Only later in the storm did Dst reach its peak value. At this time an expansion of the auroral oval brought disturbances to lower latitudes where they caused power system problems in the United States, United Kingdom, and Sweden.
Understanding the geomagnetic hazard to power systems requires the ability to model the geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) produced in a power network. This paper presents the developments in GIC modeling starting with an examination of fundamental questions about where the driving force for GIC is located. Then we outline the two main network modeling approaches that are mathematically equivalent and show an example for a simple circuit. Accurate modeling of the GIC produced during real space weather events requires including the appropriate system characteristics, magnetic source fields, and Earth conductivity structure. It is shown how multiple voltage levels can be included in GIC modeling and how the network configuration affects the GIC values. Magnetic source fields can be included by using “plane wave” or line current models or by using geomagnetic observatory data with an appropriate interpolation scheme. Earth conductivity structure can be represented by 1‐D, 2‐D, or 3‐D models that are used to calculate the transfer function between electric and magnetic fields at the Earth's surface. For 2‐D and 3‐D structures this will involve a tensor impedance function and electric fields that are not necessarily orthogonal to the magnetic field variations. It is now technically possible to include all these features in the modeling of GIC, and various software implementations are being developed to make these features more accessible for use in risk studies.
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