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ABSTRACT. East Africa's Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake's shores and abroad. In particular, the lake's fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria's system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake's social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks' vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society's vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

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Prior to the 1980s, lakes Kyoga and Victoria previously supported an exceptionally diverse haplochromine ¢sh fauna comprising at least 11 trophic groups. The species and trophic diversity in these lakes decreased when the introduced Nile perch depleted haplochromine stocks. From December1996 to October1998, we studied species and trophic diversity of haplochromine ¢shes in six satellite lakes without Nile perch in the Kyoga basin and compared them with the Kyoga main lake against historical data from Lake Victoria where Nile perch were introduced. Forty-one species were found in the study area, of which, the Kyoga satellite lakes contributed 37 species in comparison to only 14 from the Kyoga main lake. Analysis of trophic diversity based on 24 species that contained food material revealed seven haplochromine trophic groups (insectivores, peadophages, piscivores, algal eaters, higher plant eaters, molluscivores and detritivores) in the Kyoga satellite lakes in comparison to two trophic groups (insectivores and molluscivores) in the Kyoga main lake. Many of the species and trophic groups of haplochromines depleted by the introduced Nile perch in lakes Kyoga andVictoria still survive in the Kyoga satellite lakes. This is attributed to the absence of Nile perch in those lakes. Nile perch has been prevented from spreading into the satellite lakes by swamp vegetation that separate them from the main lakes. If these swamps prevent Nile perch from spreading into the lakes, it is possible to conserve ¢sh species, especially haplochromines, which are threatened by introduction of Nile perch in the main lakes.

Equatorial fishes, and the critically important fisheries based on them, are thought to be at-risk from climate warming because the fishes have evolved in a relatively aseasonal environment and possess narrow thermal tolerance windows that are close to upper thermal limits. We assessed survival, growth, aerobic performance and critical thermal maxima (CTmax) following acute and 21 d exposures to temperatures up to 4°C higher than current maxima for six species of freshwater fishes indigenous to tropical countries and of importance for human consumption. All six species showed 1.3–1.7°C increases in CTmax with a 4°C rise in acclimation temperature, values which match up well with fishes from other climatic regions, and five species had survival >87% at all temperatures over the treatment period. Specific growth rates varied among and within each species in response to temperature treatments. For all species, the response of resting metabolic rate (RMR) was consistently more dynamic than for maximum metabolic rate, but in general both acute temperature exposure and thermal acclimation had only modest effects on aerobic scope (AS). However, RMR increased after warm acclimation in 5 of 6 species, suggesting incomplete metabolic compensation. Taken in total, our results show that each species had some ability to perform at temperatures up to 4°C above current maxima, yet also displayed certain areas of concern for their long-term welfare. We therefore suggest caution against the overly broad generalization that all tropical freshwater fish species will face severe challenges from warming temperatures in the coming decades and that future vulnerability assessments should integrate multiple performance metrics as opposed to relying on a single response metric. Given the societal significance of inland fisheries in many parts of the tropics, our results clearly demonstrate the need for more species-specific studies of adaptive capacity to climate change-related challenges.