Despite dramatic reductions in the 1990s of N and P emissions in the drainage basin, Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe (Estonia/Russia) is still suffering from algal blooms, probably caused by low N:P ratios of the lake water. To quantify the sources and changes of N and P inputs to the lake as a result of economic changes, we modelled emissions, transfer and in-stream retention using a GIS model. The model was calibrated using river monitoring data from the 1985-1989 period, and used to simulate emissions and loads for five future scenarios for 2015-2019. During the 1985-1999 period, diffuse P emissions decreased relatively more than N diffuse emissions, but this was not reflected in the loads to the lake. P loads decreased relatively less than N loads, which caused a decrease in the N:P ratio of the rivers. About 30-45% of diffuse N emissions and only 3-10% of diffuse P emissions reaches the river network. In-stream retention reduces N and P loads to the lake by about 62% and 72%, respectively. Point sources contribute negligibly to the N load to the lake, but form about one-third of the P load. A target/fast development scenario is the most likely scenario for the 2015-2019 period, resulting in higher nutrient loads than in recent years. We conclude that effective load reductions can be achieved by focussing on diffuse N and P emissions close (< 50 km2) to the lake and by upgrading P removal capacity in wastewater treatment plants of towns.

This study aims at the quantification of possible future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe under different economic development scenarios. This drainage basin is on the borders of Russia, Estonia and Latvia. The sudden disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a collapse of agricultural economy, and consequently, a substantial decrease of diffuse and point-source nutrient emissions. For the future, uncertainties about economic development and the priorities that will be set for this region make it difficult to assess the consequences for river water quality and nutrient loads into the lake. We applied five integrated scenarios of future development of this transboundary region for the next twelve to fifteen years. Each scenario consists of a qualitative story line, which was translated into quantitative changes in the input variables for a geographical information system based nutrient transport model. This model calculates nutrient emissions, as well as transport and retention and the resulting nutrient loads into the lake. The model results show that the effects of the different development scenarios on nutrient loads are relatively limited over a time span of about 15 years. In general, a further reduction of nutrient loads is expected, except for a fast economic development scenario.

First results are presented of a large-scale GIS-based nutrient transport modelling for the 1985-1999 period in the Estonian part of the transboundary drainage basin of Lake Peipsi (Estonian)/Chudskoe (Russian), one of the largest lakes in Europe, shared by Russia and Estonia. Although the lake is relatively undisturbed by human pollution, it is vulnerable for eutrophication by increased river loads, as shown in the past, when the north-eastern part of the former Soviet Union suffered from intensive agriculture. The collapse of the Soviet Union caused a dramatic decline in fertilizer application rates and widespread abandonment of agricultural land. Although concentration measurements and modelling results indicate a general decrease in nutrient loads, modelling is complicated by the transfer of nutrients from diffuse emissions, which is strongly governed by retention and assumed periodic release from storages within the river basin, like the root zone, tile drains, ditches, channels, bed sediments, floodplains and lakes. Modelling diffuse emission contribution to river loads can be improved by better knowledge about the spatial and temporal distribution of this retention and release within the drainage basin.

Abstract:In 2002-2004 we undertook six sampling campaigns during representative hydrological stages in a 901 km 2 Estonian lowland catchment to quantify the spatial and seasonal variability of in-stream dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) concentrations and to identify the influence of land cover and landscape structure. Using a synoptic approach we mapped concentrations in all stream orders. Using linear regression, the relations between the share of agricultural land and log-transformed in-stream concentrations were explored. Both the share of agricultural land in the entire 'area of influence' upstream from a sampling location, as well as the share in a 150-m buffer around the stream were used as linear regression input variables. Log-transformed DIN and DRP concentration variability was highest for lower order streams, while it averaged out in higher order streams during all seasons. Between-season variation in export can mainly be attributed to discharge variation. In extremely dry periods, there are no significant relations between land cover/structure and in-stream ln(DIN) concentrations and only weak relations for ln(DRP) concentrations. In other seasons, the share of agricultural land in the upstream area can explain concentrations in higher order streams better than in lower order streams. The prediction of ln(DIN) concentrations in lower order streams can be improved by using the share of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer as an input variable. This indicates that hydrological connectivity must be taken into account for lower order streams, while land cover shares are enough to explain concentrations for higher order streams.