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Both the centuries-long tradition of conventional lifespan indicators and the more recent criticism to them ignore the true exposures of individuals to prevailing mortality levels. These exposures form a genuine part of a more comprehensive picture of the prevailing mortality conditions. In low-mortality countries, our estimated duration of human life exceeds the conventional estimates by 15 years. Our theory implies that mortality dynamics are characterised by a considerable inertia. This is used to develop new methods of forecasting, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future mortality.

Migration has become a key factor in the growth and replacement of populations. But demographic tools for its analysis remain simple. This paper is our response to those problems. We propose a set of simple, singlenumber indicators, which summarise the aggregate effect of the major contributing factors to the reproduction of populations. Our estimates imply that the persistence of rates observed since 2004 would lead to robust population growth in the North-Western and Northern economically developed European countries. On the other hand, countries in the East of the EU and Central European countries would face substantial population decline due both to their low fertility and to low or negative net migration. If current inflows and fertility levels persist, then within 50 years, people who migrated after 2004 and their descendants will comprise more than half of the population at childbearing and younger ages in some European countries.