<p>Urban areas, the core of socio-economic activity with high population density, are considered highly vulnerable to flood hazards. Istanbul, Turkey's most populated city with around 16 million inhabitants, and at the same time commercial, cultural, and social capital, was chosen as the study area. Istanbul is a metropolis that has grown under unplanned growth, particularly with rural to urban migration in the 1950s. A significant portion of the city's natural areas, stream basins and valleys have been replaced by concrete surfaces. This transformation not only brought societal challenges, but increased urban vulnerability to extreme events and hazards. As a coastal city that consists of two peninsulas, Istanbul is highly prone to flash floods from heavy rainfalls. Flood events intensely impair the municipal services (e.g., public transportation, water and sanitation, electricity distribution), consequently affect the operation of businesses and public services, and cause high economic losses as well as even deaths and casualties. Many of the highly vulnerable zones for floods already endure inadequate housing and transport access. This study aims to build a flood vulnerability index to identify the districts vulnerable to floods in the metropolitan area and assess the impacts of floods on households and transportation infrastructure. The developed vulnerability index incorporates socioeconomic and physical vulnerability components, while also closely examining key transportation infrastructure in highly vulnerable locations. Using the multi-criteria decision making approach, 9 different indicators of flood vulnerability were evaluated, then weighted by stakeholders and experts using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. This methodology is implemented to 100 year flood zones and 500 year flood zones to represent the potential impact of future climate change. The proposed assessment disclosed that 22% of the basin has low urban flood vulnerability while the extremely vulnerable and vulnerable zones together constituted approximately 40% of the total area.&#160; Approximately 75% of the road length (i.e., highways, main arteries, boulevards) and 20% of the public transportation lines (i.e., stations, railways, bus lines) across the basin are located in the vulnerable areas. The findings of the study have the potential to provide policymakers with up-to-date and detailed flood vulnerability assessments to serve as the foundation for their decision-making processes under flooding hazards.</p>
<p>The Konya province in the Central Anatolia Region of Turkey features a semi-arid climate with cold winters and hot, dry summers. Although the annual precipitation of the Konya Closed Basin is about 350 mm, the basin is considered one of the main agricultural regions of Turkey. Given the effects of drought on crop yields and food security, evaluation of drought risks is crucial. This study aims to describe historical as well as future drought characteristics of the Konya basin by means of two widely used meteorological drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The indices were calculated for different timescales (6&#8211;24-month timescale) to better assess agricultural drought conditions. For the SPEI index, the potential evapotranspiration (PET) was calculated using the Hargreaves and Samani method, commonly used in arid and semi-arid weather conditions. The analysis was performed over the period 1980-2020 using precipitation and temperature data from 18 weather stations located within Konya Closed Basin. Based on drought classification by SPI and SPEI, values equal to or lower than -2 are considered extreme droughts. The results show that the number of extreme climatic drought periods at the considered stations within the Konya basin based on SPI is higher than that based on SPEI. The findings also reveal that both SPEI and SPI characterize a general increase in drought severity, areal extent, and frequency over 2000-2010 compared to those during 1980-1990, mostly because of the decreasing precipitation and to a lesser extent rising potential evapotranspiration. To assess future drought frequencies, the drought indices were calculated using precipitation and temperature data provided by 17 regional climate models from the EUROCORDEX project. The results for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios show significantly more frequent extreme and severe droughts, particularly for the second half of the 21st century. Overall, this study implies that SPEI may be more appropriate than SPI to monitor drought periods under climate change since potential evapotranspiration increases in a warmer climate.</p> <p>This work was developed under the scope of the InTheMED project. InTheMED is part of the PRIMA program supported by the European Union&#8217;s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 1923.</p>
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