Carnivore guilds play a vital role in ecological communities by cascading trophic effects, energy and nutrient transfer, and stabilizing or destabilizing food webs. Consequently, the structure of carnivore guilds can be critical to ecosystem patterns. Body size is a crucial influence on intraguild interactions, because it affects access to prey resources, effectiveness in scramble competition, and vulnerability to intraguild predation. Coyotes (Canis latrans), bobcats (Lynx rufus), gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), raccoons (Procyon lotor), red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) occur sympatrically throughout much of North America and overlap in resource use, indicating potential for interspecific interactions. Although much is known about the autecology of the individual species separately, little is known about factors that facilitate coexistence and how interactions within this guild influence distribution, habitat use, and temporal activity of the smaller carnivores. To assess how habitat autecology and interspecific interactions affect the structure of this widespread carnivore guild, we conducted a large‐scale, non‐invasive carnivore survey using an occupancy modeling framework. We deployed remote cameras during 3‐week surveys to detect carnivores at 1,118 camera locations in 357 2.6‐km2 sections (3–4 cameras/section composing a cluster) in the 16 southernmost counties of Illinois (16,058 km2) during January–April, 2008–2010. We characterized microhabitat at each camera location and landscape‐level habitat features for each camera cluster. In a multistage approach, we used information‐theoretic methods to evaluate competing models for detection, species‐specific habitat occupancy, multispecies co‐occupancy, and multiseason (colonization and extinction) occupancy dynamics. We developed occupancy models for each species to represent hypothesized effects of anthropogenic features, prey availability, landscape complexity, and vegetative land cover. We quantified temporal activity patterns of each carnivore species based on their frequency of appearance in photographs. Further, we assessed whether smaller carnivores shifted their diel activity patterns in response to the presence of potential competitors. Of the 102,711 photographs of endothermic animals, we recorded photographs of bobcats (n = 412 photographs), coyotes (n = 1,397), gray foxes (n = 546), raccoons (n = 40,029), red foxes (n = 149), and striped skunks (n = 2,467). Bobcats were active primarily during crepuscular periods, and their activity was reduced with precipitation and higher temperatures. The probability of detecting bobcats decreased after a bobcat photograph was recorded, suggesting avoidance of remote cameras after the first encounter. Across southern Illinois, bobcat occupancy at the camera‐location and camera‐cluster scale (ψtrueˆlocal = 0.24 ± 0.04, camera cluster ψtrueˆcluster = 0.75 ± 0.06) was negatively influenced by anthropogenic features and infrastructure. Bobcats had high rates of coloni...

Ecologists routinely fit complex models with multiple parameters of interest, where hundreds or more competing models are plausible. To limit the number of fitted models, ecologists often define a model selection strategy composed of a series of stages in which certain features of a model are compared while other features are held constant. Defining these multi-stage strategies requires making a series of decisions, which may potentially impact inferences, but have not been critically evaluated. We begin by identifying key features of strategies, introducing descriptive terms when they did not already exist in the literature. Strategies differ in how they define and order model building stages. Sequential-by-sub-model strategies focus on one sub-model (parameter) at a time with modeling of subsequent sub-models dependent on the selected sub-model structures from the previous stages. Secondary candidate set strategies model sub-models independently and combine the top set of models from each sub-model for selection in a final stage. Build-up approaches define stages across sub-models and increase in complexity at each stage. Strategies also differ in how the top set of models is selected in each stage and whether they use null or more complex sub-model structures for non-target sub-models. We tested the performance of different model selection strategies using four data sets and three model types. For each data set, we determined the "true" distribution of AIC weights by fitting all plausible models. Then, we calculated the number of models that would have been fitted and the portion of "true" AIC weight we recovered under different model selection strategies. Sequential-by-sub-model strategies often performed poorly. Based on our results, we recommend using a build-up or secondary candidate sets, which were more reliable and carrying all models within 5-10 AIC of the top model forward to subsequent stages. The structure of non-target sub-models was less important. Multi-stage approaches cannot compensate for a lack of critical thought in selecting covariates and building models to represent competing a priori hypotheses. However, even when competing hypotheses for different sub-models are limited, thousands or more models may be possible so strategies to explore candidate model space reliably and efficiently will be necessary.

Differential habitat use and intraguild competition are both thought to be important drivers of animal population sizes and distributions. Habitat associations for individual species are well-established, and interactions between particular pairs of species have been highlighted in many focal studies. However, community-wide assessments of the relative strengths of these two factors have not been conducted. We built multi-scale habitat occupancy models for five carnivore taxa of New York’s Adirondack landscape and assessed the relative performance of these models against ones in which co-occurrences of potentially competing carnivore species were also incorporated. Distribution models based on habitat performed well for all species. Black bear (Ursus americanus) and fisher (Martes pennanti) distribution was similar in that occupancy of both species was negatively associated with paved roads. However, black bears were also associated with larger forest fragments and fishers with smaller forest fragments. No models with habitat features were more supported than the null habitat model for raccoons (Procyon lotor). Martens (Martes americana) were most associated with increased terrain ruggedness and elevation. Weasel (Mustela spp.) occupancy increased with the cover of deciduous forest. For most species dyads habitat-only models were more supported than those models with potential competitors incorporated. The exception to this finding was for the smallest carnivore taxa (marten and weasel) where habitat plus coyote abundance models typically performed better than habitat-only models. Assessing this carnivore community as whole, we conclude that differential habitat use is more important than species interactions in maintaining the distribution and structure of this carnivore guild.