Climate change will create warmer temperatures, greater precipitation, and longer growing seasons in northern latitudes making agriculture increasingly possible in boreal regions. To assess the potential of any such expansion, this paper provides a first-order approximation of how much land could become suitable for four staple crops (corn, potato, soy, and wheat) in Canada by 2080. In addition, we estimate how the environmental trade-offs of northern agricultural expansion will impact critical ecosystem services. Primarily, we evaluate how the regulatory ecosystem services of carbon storage and sequestration and the habitat services supporting biodiversity would be traded for the provisioning services of food production. Here we show that under climate change projected by Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, ∼1.85 million km2 of land may become suitable for farming in Canada’s North, which, if utilized, would lead to the release of ∼15 gigatonnes of carbon if all forests and wetlands are cleared and plowed. These land-use changes would also have profound implications for Indigenous sovereignty and the governance of protected and conserved areas in Canada. These results highlight that research is urgently needed so that stakeholders can become aware of the scope of potential economic opportunities, cultural issues, and environmental trade-offs required for agricultural sustainability in Canada.

A transition toward decentralized and land-intensive renewable energy production systems is one among many factors re-shaping rural areas, leading to reimaginations and contestations. Especially in the Global North, the rural narrative now includes not just rural ‘production’ but also the ‘consumption’ of rural amenity and experience. Previous research into public attitudes toward renewable energy correlates the former with positive attitudes to renewable energy, and the latter with negative attitudes toward renewable energy. Territorial structures, such as official land-use plans, reflect dominant discourses and narratives that shape ongoing rural transformation. The purpose of this work is to understand the extent to which, if at all, those correlations at the individual level between landscape conceptualizations and sentiment toward renewable energy are manifest in territorial structures. In what ways are energy transitions present in rural land-use plans and planning systems? Is there a relationship between how rural landscapes are conceptualized and how energy transitions are framed and addressed, in land-use planning systems? These questions are answered through a structured content and discourse analysis of 10 land-use plans of rural municipalities in southern Ontario; an agriculturally intensive region that hosts much of Ontario’s large-scale renewable energy systems. Correlations observed between landscape conceptualizations and sentiment toward renewable energy observed are not strongly reflected in land-use plans. Land-use plans in this region are not positioned to manage the place-based opportunities and impacts associated with renewable energy development. The research reveals an opportunity for rural land-use planning systems to more explicitly incorporate energy transitions in their evolving discourses, identities and development trajectories.