BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often receive burdensome care at end-of-life (EOL) and infrequently complete advance care planning (ACP). The surprise question (SQ) is a prognostic tool that may facilitate ACP. OBJECTIVE: To assess how well the SQ predicts mortality and prompts ACP for COPD patients. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: Patients admitted to the hospital for an acute exacerbation of COPD between July 2015 and September 2018. MAIN MEASURES: Emergency department (ED) and inpatient clinicians answered, "Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 30 days (ED)/one year (inpatient)?" The primary outcome measure was the accuracy of the SQ in predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality. The secondary outcome was the correlation between SQ and ACP (palliative care consultation, documented goals-ofcare conversation, change in code status, or completion of ACP document). KEY RESULTS: The 30-day SQ had a high specificity but low sensitivity for predicting 30-day mortality: sensitivity 12%, specificity 95%, PPV 11%, and NPV 96%. The 1-year SQ demonstrated better accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality: sensitivity 47%, specificity 75%, PPV 35%, and NPV 83%. After multivariable adjustment for age, sex, and prior 6-month admissions, 1-year SQ+ responses were associated with greater odds of 1-year mortality (OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.39-4.08) versus SQ-. One-year SQ+ patients were more likely to have a goals-of-care conversation (25% vs. 11%, p < 0.01) and complete an advance directive or POLST (46% vs. 23%, p < 0.01). After multivariable adjustment, SQ+ responses to the 1-year SQ were associated with greater odds of ACP receipt (OR 2.67,. CONCLUSIONS: The 1-year surprise question may be an effective component of prognostication and advance care planning for COPD patients in the inpatient setting.

The majority of glioma patients experience declines in neurocognitive function (NCF), presumably due to tumor and treatment effects. We sought to understand the natural history of this decline in grade III and grade IV patients. A condensed battery of cognitive tests (HTLV, COWAT, GPT, TMT, and BTA) was administered at three time points: prior (T0) and after (T1) chemoradiation, and during adjuvant chemotherapy (T2). 31 patients were enrolled of which 25, 9 grade III and 16 grade IV, were analyzed. Although our N was too small for statistically significant results, we observed potentially meaningful clinical trends. Changes in HTLV, TMT, and COWAT scores among grade III patients displayed a pattern different from that of grade IV, with a steep decline seen after chemoradiation (T0-T1) followed by improvement several months later (T1-T2), despite ongoing chemotherapy. Grade IV patients, in contrast, showed minimal decline in scores (little change in score between T0-T1 and between T1-T2), perhaps highlighting that NCF is more impacted by disease rather than treatment. We tried to identify a subset of patients who seemed more susceptible to NCF decline. Examination of key clinical features showed that less than gross total resection and less than 4 year degree education level trended to associate with steeper NCF decline (only 40% of those experiencing steep declines in multiple domains had more than 4 yr degree, versus 60% of those with moderate or no decline). This pilot study highlights that assessing neurocognitive function routinely in clinical practice is feasible in a rural academic hospital. Based on patterns of changes in NCF, it appears that grade III and grade IV gliomas are distinct tumor subtypes with respect to NCF decline. Level of education may be a useful biomarker to identify those patients most at risk for neurocognitive decline after treatment.