A better understanding of regional‐scale precipitation patterns in the Himalayan region is required to increase our knowledge of the impacts of climate change on downstream water availability. This study examines the impact of four cloud microphysical schemes (Thompson, Morrison, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) single‐moment 5‐class, and WRF double‐moment 6‐class) on summer monsoon precipitation in the Langtang Valley in the central Nepalese Himalayas, as simulated by the WRF model at 1 km grid spacing for a 10 day period in July 2012. The model results are evaluated through a comparison with surface precipitation and radiation measurements made at two observation sites. Additional understanding is gained from a detailed examination of the microphysical characteristics simulated by each scheme, which are compared with measurements using a spaceborne radar/lidar cloud product. Also examined are the roles of large‐ and small‐scale forcings. In general, the schemes are able to capture the timing of surface precipitation better than the actual amounts in the Langtang Valley, which are predominately underestimated, with the Morrison scheme showing the best agreement with the measured values. The schemes all show a large positive bias in incoming radiation. Analysis of the radar/lidar cloud product and hydrometeors from each of the schemes suggests that “cold‐rain” processes are a key precipitation formation mechanism, which is also well represented by the Morrison scheme. As well as microphysical structure, both large‐scale and localized forcings are also important for determining surface precipitation.
Despite the recent significant climatic changes observed over West Antarctica, which include large warming in central West Antarctica and accelerated ice loss, adequate validation of regional simulations of meteorological variables are rare for this region. To address this gap, results from a recent version of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) covering West Antarctica at a high horizontal resolution of 5 km were validated against near-surface meteorological observations. The model employed physics options that included the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino boundary layer scheme, the WRF Single Moment 5-Class cloud microphysics scheme, the new version of the rapid radiative transfer model for both shortwave and longwave radiation, and the Noah land surface model. Our evaluation finds this model to be a useful tool for realistically capturing the near-surface meteorological conditions. It showed high skill in simulating surface pressure (correlation ≥0.97), good skill for wind speed with better correlation at inland sites (0.7-0.8) compared to coastal sites (0.3-0.6), generally good representation of strong wind events, and good skill for temperature in winter (correlation ≥0.8). The main shortcomings of this configuration of Polar WRF are an occasional failure to properly represent transient cyclones and their influence on coastal winds, an amplified diurnal temperature cycle in summer, and a general tendency to underestimate the wind speed at inland sites in summer. Additional sensitivity studies were performed to quantify the impact of the choice of boundary layer scheme and surface boundary conditions. It is shown that the model is most sensitive to the choice of boundary layer scheme, with the representation of the temperature diurnal cycle in summer significantly improved by selecting the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic boundary layer scheme. By contrast, the model results showed little sensitivity to whether the horizontal resolution was 5 or 15 km.
South Georgia is a small and mountainous island, located in the remote Southern Ocean. The island's subantarctic climate is controlled by its location and steep orography; with 19 peaks over 2000m and situated within a belt of strong westerly winds South Georgia acts as an effective barrier to the winds that impinge upon it.Since the 1920s, average summer temperatures have risen by ~1 o C on South Georgia.Coupled with this has been an increase in the rate of glacial retreat throughout the last century, with glaciers on the northeast leeside of the island retreating at a faster rate than those on the southwest side. These asymmetrical changes are thought to be linked with the strengthening of the westerlies. If the strength of the westerlies is sufficient, downslope winds can develop on the leeside of the island causing significant temperature increases as the descending air warms adiabatically; this is known as the föhn effect. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to investigate whether the observed asymmetric pattern of regional warming and glacier retreat are caused by the föhn warming process.To explore the link between the föhn effect and its impact on the regional climate of
The Sichuan basin is one of the most densely populated regions of China, making the area particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts associated with future climate change. As such, climate models are important for understanding regional and local impacts of climate change and variability, like heat stress and drought. In this study, climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are validated over the Sichuan basin by evaluating how well each model can capture the phase, amplitude, and variability of the regionally observed mean, maximum, and minimum temperature between 1979 and 2005. The results reveal that the majority of the models do not capture the basic spatial pattern and observed means, trends, and probability distribution functions. In particular, mean and minimum temperatures are underestimated, especially during the winter, resulting in biases exceeding −3°C. Models that reasonably represent the complex basin topography are found to generally have lower biases overall. The five most skillful climate models with respect to the regional climate of the Sichuan basin are selected to explore twenty-first-century temperature projections for the region. Under the CMIP5 high-emission future climate change scenario, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), the temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 4°C (with an average warming rate of +0.72°C decade−1), with the greatest warming located over the central plains of the Sichuan basin, by 2100. Moreover, the frequency of extreme months (where mean temperature exceeds 28°C) is shown to increase in the twenty-first century at a faster rate compared to the twentieth century.
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