The global and regional economic growth seen in the past decades has triggered a major transformation of the maritime transport sector, the ports, and the logistics. Regarding shipping in particular, ships of a growing size are being allocated to container transport with increasing frequency. This size enlargement has a strategic implication in the planning of ports and its services and related activities. Considering historical data, it can be observed that the large vessels which travel the main maritime routes of worldwide trade need progressively fewer years to reach the coasts of South America. This paper seeks to determine the time span before the largest vessels of the present time (with an average 13 000 TEUS) will reach the South American coasts. Different models were estimated, considering the following factors as explanatory variables for the international maximum vessel size: maritime trade, global economic activity, time span between the appearance of vessels navigating the maritime routes of international trade and their arrival to the coasts of the mentioned region, and the characteristics of the eastern and western South American coasts. As a major finding, it was determined that the vessels of an average 13 000 TEUS would reach South America regularly between 2016 and 2020. These results are interesting in order to warn about the need for an efficient medium-term planning of the port industry and the logistics that could maximize the benefits of its impact on the regional economy.

El papel de la República Popular de China en la economía mundial se ha incrementado significativamente en las últimas décadas, convirtiéndola en un socio estratégico en el comercio exterior de gran parte de América Latina. El comercio bilateral entre la región y la nación asiática alcanzó los 120.000 millones de dólares durante el año 2009. En esta investigación se analiza la elasticidad ingreso de las exportaciones de la región a dicho país. Los resultados muestran que, asumiendo un crecimiento real del producto interno bruto (pib) chino cercano al 7% anual, el valor (a precios de 2005) de las exportaciones latinoamericanas a China crecería en torno del 10% promedio anual entre 2014 y 2019.A su vez, un escenario más conservador, en que se contemple un crecimiento promedio anual de la economía china del 4,5% para igual período, arrojaría un aumento de las exportaciones cercano al 7% anual. PALABRAS CLAVEComercio internacional, relaciones económicas internacionales, crecimiento económico, exportaciones, estadísticas comerciales, modelos matemáticos,

Since 2006, when the Emma Maersk broke into the world of shipping, the growth in containership size has remained a continuous trend.For the last 14 years, since 2006, the enlargement of fullcontainerships size has remained a continuous trend since Emma Maersk broke into the world of shipping. This process - that also affected north-south trades - has crucial implications in the shipping business, particularly in the planning of ports and its services and related activities. This paper analyses the global increase in vessel size and forecasts larger vessels’ arrival to South American coasts. The paper analyses evidence since 2006 to understand the factors behind the trend for bigger ships (fleets between 18,000 and 24,000 TEU) and introduce a validated methodology for the prediction of the size of container ships. Experts presented a consensus vision in which factors associated with infrastructure, economics, technology, and the environment play a crucial role in driving the trend. Next, the paper presents a methodology for forecasting the size of containerships and applies it to Latin America’s trade. The models include two alternative thresholds for the dependent variables (1310 ft LOA and 18,000 TEU of nominal capacity) that are controlled by cascading effect (i.e., the size gap between Latin America and the world’s main trade routes), and the economic activity at the destination countries (represented by port activity). Finally, the conclusions highlight the forecast’s call to take action on infrastructure planning and investments, analyzing issues such as “economies of scale,” concentration, or entry barriers. Overall, the paper warns about the importance of efficient medium-term planning in the port industry to maximize its economic impact.

The role of the People's Republic of China in the world economy has grown substantially in recent decades, turning it into a strategic foreign trading partner for much of Latin

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