Whether coding or regulatory sequence change is more important to the evolution of phenotypic novelty is one of biology's major unresolved questions. The field of evo-devo has shown that in early development changes to regulatory regions are the dominant mode of genetic change, but whether this extends to the evolution of novel phenotypes in the adult organism is unclear. Here, we conduct ten RNA-Seq experiments across both novel and conserved tissues in the honey bee to determine to what extent postdevelopmental novelty is based on changes to the coding regions of genes. We make several discoveries. First, we show that with respect to novel physiological functions in the adult animal, positively selected tissue-specific genes of high expression underlie novelty by conferring specialized cellular functions. Such genes are often, but not always taxonomically restricted genes (TRGs). We further show that positively selected genes, whether TRGs or conserved genes, are the least connected genes within gene expression networks. Overall, this work suggests that the evo-devo paradigm is limited, and that the evolution of novelty, postdevelopment, follows additional rules. Specifically, evo-devo stresses that high network connectedness (repeated use of the same gene in many contexts) constrains coding sequence change as it would lead to negative pleiotropic effects. Here, we show that in the adult animal, the converse is true: Genes with low network connectedness (TRGs and tissue-specific conserved genes) underlie novel phenotypes by rapidly changing coding sequence to perform new-specialized functions.

This paper studies the use of a scoring rule for the elicitation of forecasts in the form of probability distributions and for the subsequent evaluation of such forecasts. Given a metric (distance function) on a space of probability distributions, a scoring rule is said to be effective if the forecaster's expected score is a strictly decreasing function of the distance between the elicited and "true" distributions. Two simple, well-known rules (the spherical and the quadratic) are shown to be effective with respect to suitable metrics. Examples and a practical application (in Foreign Exchange rate forecasting) are also provided.forecasting, Delphi technique

SummaryColonies of the red harvester ant (Pogonomyrmex barbatus) differ in how they regulate collective foraging activity in response to changes in humidity. We used transcriptomic, physiological, and pharmacological experiments to investigate the molecular basis of this ecologically important variation in collective behavior among colonies. RNA sequencing of forager brain tissue showed an association between colony foraging activity and differential expression of transcripts related to biogenic amine and neurohormonal metabolism and signaling. In field experiments, pharmacological increases in forager brain dopamine titer caused significant increases in foraging activity. Colonies that were naturally most sensitive to humidity were significantly more responsive to the stimulatory effect of exogenous dopamine. In addition, forager brain tissue significantly varied among colonies in biogenic amine content. Neurophysiological variation among colonies associated with individual forager sensitivity to humidity may reflect the heritable molecular variation on which natural selection acts to shape the collective regulation of foraging.

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Task allocation among social insect workers is an ideal framework for studying the molecular mechanisms underlying behavioural plasticity because workers of similar genotype adopt different behavioural phenotypes. Elegant laboratory studies have pioneered this effort, but field studies involving the genetic regulation of task allocation are rare. Here, we investigate the expression of the foraging gene in harvester ant workers from five age- and task-related groups in a natural population, and we experimentally test how exposure to light affects foraging expression in brood workers and foragers. Results from our field study show that the regulation of the foraging gene in harvester ants occurs at two time scales: levels of foraging mRNA are associated with ontogenetic changes over weeks in worker age, location and task, and there are significant daily oscillations in foraging expression in foragers. The temporal dissection of foraging expression reveals that gene expression changes in foragers occur across a scale of hours and the level of expression is predicted by activity rhythms: foragers have high levels of foraging mRNA during daylight hours when they are most active outside the nests. In the experimental study, we find complex interactions in foraging expression between task behaviour and light exposure. Oscillations occur in foragers following experimental exposure to 13 L : 11 D (LD) conditions, but not in brood workers under similar conditions. No significant differences were seen in foraging expression over time in either task in 24 h dark (DD) conditions. Interestingly, the expression of foraging in both undisturbed field and experimentally treated foragers is also significantly correlated with the expression of the circadian clock gene, cycle. Our results provide evidence that the regulation of this gene is context-dependent and associated with both ontogenetic and daily behavioural plasticity in field colonies of harvester ants. Our results underscore the importance of assaying temporal patterns in behavioural gene expression and suggest that gene regulation is an integral mechanism associated with behavioural plasticity in harvester ants.