Climate change can have a marked effect on the distribution and abundance of some species, as well as their interspecific interactions. In 1992, before ecological effects of anthropogenic climate change had developed into a topical research field, Hersteinsson and Macdonald published a seminal paper hypothesizing that the northern distribution limit of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is determined by food availability and ultimately climate, while the southern distribution limit of the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) is determined by interspecific competition with the larger red fox. This hypothesis has inspired extensive research in several parts of the circumpolar distribution range of the Arctic fox. Over the past 25 years, it was shown that red foxes can exclude Arctic foxes from dens, space and food resources, and that red foxes kill and sometimes consume Arctic foxes. When the red fox increases to ecologically effective densities, it can cause Arctic fox decline, extirpation and range contraction, while conservation actions involving red fox culling can lead to Arctic fox recovery. Red fox advance in productive tundra, concurrent with Arctic fox retreat from this habitat, support the original hypothesis that climate warming will alter the geographical ranges of the species. However, recent studies show that anthropogenic subsidies also drive red fox advance, allowing red fox establishment north of its climate-imposed distribution limit. We conclude that synergies between anthropogenic subsidies and climate warming will speed up Arctic ecosystem change, allowing mobile species to establish and thrive in human-provided refugia, with potential spill-over effects in surrounding ecosystems.

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The poleward range shift of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) > 1,700 km into the Arctic is one of the most remarkable distribution changes of the early twentieth century. While this expansion threatens a smaller arctic ecological equivalent, the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), the case became a textbook example of climate‐driven range shifts. We tested this classical climate change hypothesis linked to an important range shift which has attracted little research thus far. We analysed Canadian fur harvest data from the Hudson's Bay Company Archives (14 trading posts; 1926–1950), testing hypotheses based on changes in summer and winter climates. Summer warming might have triggered a bottom‐up increase in ecosystem productivity, while winter warming might have lowered thermal stress, both favouring red fox expansion. Additionally, we evaluated the hypothesis that red fox expansion was driven by the appearance of human sedentary sites (n = 110) likely bringing food subsidies into the unproductive tundra. Analysis of red fox expansion chronologies showed that expansion speed was higher during warmer winters. However, the expansions occurred under both cooling and warming trends, being faster during cooler summers in the Baffin Island region. The increasing proportion of red fox in fox fur harvests was best explained by human activity, while generalized linear mixed models also revealed a marginal effect of warmer winters. Generalized additive models confirmed human presence as the most important factor explaining rates of change in the proportion of red fox in fox fur harvests. Using historical ecology, we disentangled the relative influences of climate change and anthropogenic habitat change, two global drivers that transformed arctic biodiversity during the last century and will likely continue to do so during this century. Anthropogenic food subsidies, which constitute stable food sources, facilitated the invasion of the tundra biome by a new mammalian predator and competitor, with long‐term consequences that still remain to be understood.

A number of studies on mammalian species that have adapted to urban areas suggest survival may be higher for urban populations than rural populations. We examined differences in fatalities between an urban and rural population of fox squirrels (Sciurus niger). We radiocollared (n = 50 rural, n = 78 urban) fox squirrels during approximately 2 years. We found monthly survival of rural fox squirrels (Ŝ = 0.936) was lower than urban fox squirrels (Ŝ = 0.976) over the same 12‐month period. Nonetheless, when comparing a 24‐month period of survival data on urban squirrels with an 18‐month period on the rural squirrels (periods overlapped for 12 months), survival rates were more similar between urban (Ŝ = 0.938) and rural squirrels (Ŝ = 0.945). Our data suggest that sex and season may influence survival of urban squirrels and not rural squirrels. We also found that cause of fatalities differed between the urban and rural squirrels, with >60% of fatalities on the rural site caused by predation. In contrast, <5% of the fatalities on the urban site were caused by predation and >60% of urban fox squirrel fatalities were caused by motor vehicle collisions. This study illustrates the need to advance our ability to understand, predict, and mitigate effects of urbanization on wildlife resources.