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Fire is the keystone disturbance in the Alaskan boreal forest and is highly influenced by summer weather patterns. Records from the last 53 years reveal high variability in the annual area burned in Alaska and corresponding high variability in weather occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here we use multiple linear regression (MLR) to systematically explore the relationships between weather variables and the annual area burned in Alaska. Variation in the seasonality of the atmospheric circulation-fire linkage is addressed through an evaluation of both the East Pacific teleconnection field and a Pacific Decadal Oscillation index keyed to an annual fire index. In the MLR, seven explanatory variables and an interaction term collectively explain 79% of the variability in the natural logarithm of the number of hectares burned annually by lightning-caused fires in Alaska from 1950 to 2003. Average June temperature alone explains one-third of the variability in the logarithm of annual area burned. The results of this work suggest that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the East Pacific teleconnection indices can be useful in determining a priori an estimate of the number of hectares that will burn in an upcoming season. This information also provides insight into the link between ocean-atmosphere interactions and the fire disturbance regime in Alaska.

Many of the physical and biological processes that characterize arctic ecosystems are unique to high latitudes, and their sensitivities to climate change are poorly understood. Stratigraphic records of land-surface processes and vegetation change in the Arctic Foothills of northern Alaska reveal how tundra landscapes responded to climatic changes between 13,000 and 8000 14 C yr BP. Peat deposition began and shrub vegetation became widespread ca. 12,500 14 C yr BP, probably in response to the advent of warmer and wetter climate. Increased slope erosion caused rapid alluviation in valleys, and Populus trees spread northward along braided floodplains before 11,000 14 C yr BP. Lake levels fell and streams incised their floodplains during the Younger Dryas (YD) (11,000-10,000 14 C yr BP). A hiatus in records of Populus suggest that its geographic range contracted, and pollen records of other species suggest a cooler and drier climate during this interval. Basal peats dating to the YD are rare, suggesting that rates of paludification slowed. Immediately after 10,000 14 C yr BP, lake levels rose, streams aggraded rapidly again, intense solifluction occurred, and Populus re-invaded the area. Moist acidic tundra vegetation was widespread by 8500 14 C yr BP along with wet, organic-rich soils. Most of these landscape-scale effects of climatic change involved changes in moisture. Although low temperature is the most conspicuous feature of arctic climate, shifts in effective moisture may be the proximate cause for many of the impacts that climate change has in arctic regions. r

Stratigraphic records from lake sediment cores and slope deposits on Rapa Nui document prehistoric human impacts and natural environmental changes. A hiatus in sedimentation in Rano Raraku suggests that this lake basin dried out sometime after 4090–4410 cal yr BP and refilled only decades to centuries before AD 1180–1290. Widespread ecosystem changes caused by forest clearance by Polynesian farmers began shortly after the end of this drought. Terrestrial sections show a chronology of burning and soil erosion similar to the lake cores. Although changing sediment types and shifts in the pollen rain suggest that droughts occurred earlier in the Holocene, as yet there is no evidence for droughts occurring after AD 1180–1290. The timing of the agricultural colonization of Rapa Nui now seems well established at ca. AD 1200 and it was accompanied by rapid deforestation that was probably exacerbated by the island's small size, its droughty climate, and the rarity of primeval fires. Detailed records of a large interval of Rapa Nui's ecological history remain elusive due to the drought hiatus in the Rano Raraku sediment record. We find no evidence for a "rat outbreak impact" on Rapa Nui's vegetation preceding anthropogenic forest clearance.