How, and to what extent, do people become involved in an organization and committed to its goals? If an organization is to survive and to function effectively, it must require not one, but several different types of behavior from most of its members, and the motivations for these different types of behavior may also differ. How does a business organization attract the kind of people it needs? How does it hold them? How does it induce both reliable performance and spontaneous innovation an the part of its members? This paper proposes an analytic framework for understanding the complexities of motivational problems in an organization.

O NE outstanding result of investigations of racial prejudice is the uniformity in the patterns of discrimination against various races shown by Americans throughout the United States. In their summary of such studies Allport and Katz have shown that practically the same order of acceptability of racial and national groups has been reported by investigators in widely separated parts of the country. 1 The interpretation of the uniformity in the pattern of social prejudice suggested in this summary follows: Attitudes toward racial and national groups are in good part attitudes toward race names. They are stereotypes of our cultural pattern and are not based upon animosity toward a member of a proscribed group because of any genuine qualities that inhere in him. We have conditioned responses of varying degrees of aversion or acceptance toward racial labels and where these tags can be readily applied to individuals, as they can in the case of the Negro because of his skin color, we respond toward him not as a human being but as a personification of the symbol we have learned to despise. Now this explanation of the uniform pattern of discrimination against other races needs further analysis. It has long been known that psychologically individuals possess different attitudes toward remarkably similar social situations. In describing our various social selves William James wrote, "there results what practically is a division of the man into several selves; and this may be a discordant splitting, as where one is afraid to let one set of his acquaintances know him as he is elsewhere; or it may be a perfectly harmonious division of labor . . . ". "Nothing is commoner than to hear people discriminate between their different selves of this sort: ' As a man, I pity you, but as an official I must show you no mercy . . . '." 2 That these social selves may fall

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

UNIVERSITY OP MINNESOTAS TUDIES in the field of racial and national prejudice have concerned themselves with (1) racial preferences, or the order of acceptability of various racial and national groups, (2) variations in racial preferences, and (3) the formation and nature of racial attitudes.