While agile practices can match the needs of large organizations-especially for small, collocated teams-integrating new practices with existing processes and quality systems will require further tailoring.

Forecasting intermittent and lumpy demand is challenging. Demand occurs only sporadically and, when it does, it can vary considerably. Forecast errors are costly, resulting in obsolescent stock or unmet demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Traditional accuracy metrics are often employed to evaluate the forecasts, however these come with major drawbacks such as not taking horizontal and vertical shifts over the forecasting horizon into account, or indeed stock-keeping or opportunity costs. This results in a disadvantageous selection of methods in the context of intermittent and lumpy demand forecasts. In our study, we compare methods from statistics, machine learning and deep learning by applying a novel metric called Stock-keeping-oriented Prediction Error Costs (SPEC), which overcomes the drawbacks associated with traditional metrics. Taking the SPEC metric into account, the Croston algorithm achieves the best result, just ahead of a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network.

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Demand forecasting intermittent time series is a challenging business problem. Companies have difficulties in forecasting this particular form of demand pattern. On the one hand, it is characterized by many non-demand periods and therefore classical statistical forecasting algorithms, such as ARIMA, only work to a limited extent. On the other hand, companies often cannot meet the requirements for good forecasting models, such as providing sufficient training data. The recent major advances of artificial intelligence in applications are largely based on transfer learning. In this paper, we investigate whether this method, originating from computer vision, can improve the forecasting quality of intermittent demand time series using deep learning models. Our empirical results show that, in total, transfer learning can reduce the mean square error by 65 percent. We also show that especially short (65 percent reduction) and medium long (91 percent reduction) time series benefit from this approach.

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