<abstract> <p>Sustainable electricity supply plays a key role in economic development. Cost recovery, profitability and affordability of electricity through power tariff regulation, have become a subject of conflict between private providers and regulators. Consequently, regulators need to balance the interests of all stakeholders. The objective of this study, is to measure to which extent, Electricity Net Consumption (EC), Electricity Net Generation (EG), electricity transmission and distribution losses (Losses), International Average Crude oil prices (FP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industry Value Added (IVA) could influence the Average Electricity Prices (EP) in East Africa, especially in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kenya. The data are from World Bank Indicators and cover the period from 2000 to 2019. This study adopts a three-stage approach, consisting of panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and estimating the long run cointegration relationship of the variables in a panel context. We applied four different panel unit root tests including ADF-Fisher Chi-square, Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC); PP-Fisher Chi-square, and Im, Pesaran, and Shin, (IPS). The results reveal that the variables are non-stationary at "level", stationary at first-differences and integrated with order one denoted as I(1). The Pedroni, Kao and Johansen Fisher co-integration tests were performed. This study uses full modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) to estimate the long run relationship among the variables. We find that the increase in EG, FP, and CPI increase the Average Electricity Prices (EP); while the increase in Losses, EC, and IVA decreases EP. Therefore, we recommend the promotion of long-term investment policies in renewable sources and efficient policies to reduce technical and commercial losses. In addition, this study suggests that appropriate policies related to subsidized electricity prices would, however, prevent adverse effects related to inefficient over-consumption of electricity.</p> </abstract>

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of industrialization, technology and labor efficiency on electricity consumption in East African Region especially in Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania over the period from 1990 to 2019. This study adopts a three-stage approach, we used four different panel unit root tests including Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC); Im, Pesaran, and Shin (IPS); ADF - Fisher Chi-square and PP - Fisher Chi-square. The results reveal that all variables are stationary and integrated with order one. Pedroni's cointegration tests reveals that the variables are not cointegrated while Johansen Fisher and error correction-based panel cointegration tests reveal that all variables are cointegrated with at most one cointegrating equation. The study uses Full Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) to estimate the long run relationship among the variables. We find that the increase in industrialization increases electricity consumption whiles increase in technology and enhanced labor efficiency decreases electricity consumption.  The study recommends that countries need to consider the current level and the future GCF in planning of electricity supply and production to meet demand, promote efficient use of innovative technology and improve labor efficiency in the industrial sector.

This paper presents a comparative analysis between the theoretical concepts of tariffs design methodologies and tariff design practices in developing countries especially in East African countries including Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. The theoretical concepts impose regulatory principles to be followed by the utilities for a fair and efficient tariff. A well-defined and appropriate tariff structure must balance the financial sustainability of the sector on the one hand and the well-being of various segments of society on the other. Even if utilities in regulated markets, especially in East African Countries are currently supposed to apply dynamic pricing models, their governments are still providing significant subsidies and this can create operational inefficiencies. In addition, inappropriate dynamic pricing models can lead to cross subsidization between customers which violate the equity or non-discrimination principle of a good tariff which discourages use by the overcharged and promotes overconsumption by the subsidized. The work presented in this paper evaluate the performance of different methodologies used by developing countries to set electricity prices against the theoretical concepts of electricity dynamic pricing. It also highlights the opportunities and challenges to be addressed in order to set efficient and appropriate tariffs. The conclusion and policy recommendations are provided.

Accurate forecast in electricity consumption (EC) is of great importance for appropriate policy measures to be undertaken to avoid significant over or underproduction of electricity compared to the demand. This paper employs multiple regression (MLR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for the econometric analysis. MLR has been used to investigate the impact of the potential economic factors that influence the consumption of electricity in energy-intensive industries while ARIMA is used for the electricity consumption forecasting from 2000 to 2026. ADF test has been applied to test for the unit-roots, the results show that all variables include a unit root on their levels but all series become stationary as a result of taking their first difference. Johansen technique and the Residuals based approach to testing for long-run relationships among variables has been used. The outcomes show that the variables are co-integrated. GDP per capita is statistically significant at a 1% level and EC decreases with higher GDP per capita. The results also show that EC increases with population, while Gross Capital Formation and Industry Value Added have less influence on EC. The ARIMA (1,1,1) was found to be the best model to forecast EC and the conclusion is provided.