Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water's indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water's spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human-natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society's institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete.

Land-use change can significantly affect the provision of ecosystem services. On a local scale, zoning laws and other land-use regulations are commonly used to influence land-use change, but their effectiveness is often unclear. We evaluate the effectiveness of local land-use planning in concentrating development and minimizing impacts in riparian areas. We use spatially-explicit land cover data from the USGS Land Cover Trends project to measure development and disturbance rates before and after implementation of Oregon's land-use planning system. We apply a difference-in-difference estimator to address the problem of non-random assignment of regulations on the landscape. We find that land-use laws in Oregon have concentrated development inside of UGBs and lowered development rates in riparian areas. However, disturbance in riparian areas has increased inside of UGBs. Overall, our findings suggest that local land-use planning can be an effective tool for promoting the provision of non-market ecosystem services.

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