Background The control of Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks relies on rapid diagnosis and prompt action, a daunting task in limited-resource contexts. This study develops prediction scores that can help healthcare workers improve their decision-making at the triage-point of EVD suspect-cases during EVD outbreaks. Methods We computed accuracy measurements of EVD predictors to assess their diagnosing ability compared with the reference standard GeneXpert® results, during the eastern DRC EVD outbreak. We developed predictive scores using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones approach and constructed a clinical prediction score (CPS) and an extended clinical prediction score (ECPS). We plotted the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), estimated the area under the ROC (AUROC) to assess the performance of scores, and computed net benefits (NB) to assess the clinical utility (decision-making ability) of the scores at a given cut-off. We performed decision curve analysis (DCA) to compare, at a range of threshold probabilities, prediction scores’ decision-making ability and to quantify the number of unnecessary isolation. Results The analysis was done on data from 10432 subjects, including 651 EVD cases. The EVD prevalence was 6.2% in the whole dataset, 14.8% in the subgroup of suspects who fitted the WHO Ebola case definition, and 3.2% for the set of suspects who did not fit this case definition. The WHO clinical definition yielded 61.6% sensitivity and 76.4% specificity. Fatigue, difficulty in swallowing, red eyes, gingival bleeding, hematemesis, confusion, hemoptysis, and a history of contact with an EVD case were predictors of EVD. The AUROC for ECPS was 0.88 (95%CI: 0.86–0.89), significantly greater than this for CPS, 0.71 (95%CI: 0.69–0.73) (p < 0.0001). At -1 point of score, the CPS yielded a sensitivity of 85.4% and specificity of 42.3%, and the ECPS yielded sensitivity of 78.8% and specificity of 81.4%. The diagnostic performance of the scores varied in the three disease contexts (the whole, fitting or not fitting the WHO case definition data sets). At 10% of threshold probability, e.g. in disease-adverse context, ECPS gave an NB of 0.033 and a net reduction of unnecessary isolation of 67.1%. Using ECPS as a joint approach to isolate EVD suspects reduces the number of unnecessary isolations by 65.7%. Conclusion The scores developed in our study showed a good performance as EVD case predictors since their use improved the net benefit, i.e., their clinical utility. These rapid and low-cost tools can help in decision-making to isolate EVD-suspicious cases at the triage point during an outbreak. However, these tools still require external validation and cost-effectiveness evaluation before being used on a large scale.

IntroductionThis study aimed to determine whether the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the number of people seen at public facilities in Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Sierra Leone for essential primary healthcare services.MethodsThe number of weekly consultations for antenatal care (ANC), outpatient (OPD), expanded programme on immunisations (EPI), family planning (FP) services and HIV, for the period of January 2018-December 2020, were collected from 25 primary healthcare facilities in Masaka district, Uganda, 21 health centres in Goma, DRC, and 29 facilities in Kambia district, Sierra Leone. Negative binomial regression models accounting for facility level clustering and season were used to analyse changes in activity levels between 2018, 2019 and 2020.ResultsWe found no evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the number of OPD, EPI or ANC consultations in Goma. Family planning consultations were 17% lower in March-July 2020 compared to 2019, but this recovered by December 2020. New diagnoses of HIV were 34% lower throughout 2020 compared to 2019. Compared to the same periods in 2019, facilities in Sierra Leone had 18-29% fewer OPD consultations throughout 2020, and 27% fewer DTP3 doses in March-July 2020, but this had recovered by Jul-Dec. There was no evidence of differences in other services. In Uganda there were 20-35% fewer under-5 OPD consultations, 21-66% fewer MCV1 doses, and 48-51% fewer new diagnoses of HIV, throughout 2020, compared to 2019. There was no difference in the number of HPV doses delivered in 2020 compared to 2019.ConclusionsThe level of disruption appeared to correlate with the strength of lockdown measures in the different settings and community attitudes towards the risk posed by COVID-19. Mitigation strategies such as health communications campaigns and outreach services proved important to limit the impact of lockdowns on primary healthcare services.Key messagesWhat is already known on this topicThe COVID-19 pandemic and the response measures put in place caused disruption to the provision and utilisation of primary healthcare services worldwide.What this study addsWe document that the COVID-19 pandemic had a varied impact on different services in three distinct settings on the African continent. The extent that the pandemic impacted services correlated with the stringency of the lockdowns, community perceptions of the level of danger posed by the pandemic and communities’ prior exposure to Ebola epidemics and concomitant response measures.How this study might affect research, practice, or policystrategies such as communication campaigns and outreach services limited the impact of lockdowns on essential services and would be valuable strategies to implement in future epidemics.