The historical patterns of opiate use show that sources and methods of access greatly influence who is at risk. Today, there is evidence that an enormous increase in the availability of prescription opiates is fuelling a rise in addiction nationally, drawing in new initiates to these drugs and changing the geography of opiate overdoses. Recent efforts at supply-based reductions in prescription opiates may reduce harm, but addicted individuals may switch to other opiates such as heroin. In this analysis, we test the hypothesis that changes in the rates of Prescription Opiate Overdoses (POD) are correlated with changes in the rate of heroin overdoses (HOD). ICD9 codes from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and population data from the Census were used to estimate overall and demographic specific rates of POD and HOD hospital admissions between 1993 and 2009. Regression models were used to test for linear trends and lagged negative binomial regression models were used to model the interrelationship between POD and HOD hospital admissions. Findings show that whites, women, and middle-aged individuals had the largest increase in POD and HOD rates over the study period and that HOD rates have increased in since 2007. The lagged models show that increases in a hospitals POD predict an increase in the subsequent years HOD admissions by a factor of 1.26 (p<0.001) and that each increase in HOD admissions increase the subsequent years POD by a factor of 1.57 (p<0.001). Our hypothesis of fungibility between prescription opiates and heroin was supported by these analyses. These findings suggest that focusing on supply-based interventions may simply lead to a shift in use to heroin rather minimizing the reduction in harm. The alternative approach of using drug abuse prevention resources on treatment and demand-side reduction is likely to be more productive at reducing opiate abuse related harm.

Background-Illicitly manufactured fentanyl and its analogues are appearing in countries throughout the world, often disguised as heroin or counterfeit prescription pills, with resulting high overdose mortality. Possible explanations for this phenomenon include reduced costs and risks to heroin suppliers, heroin shortages, user preferences for a strong, fast-acting opioid and the emergence of Dark Web cryptomarkets. This paper addresses these potential causes and asks three questions: (1) can users identify fentanyl; (2) do users desire fentanyl; and (3) if users want fentanyl, can they express this demand in a way that influences the supply? Argument/analysis-Existing evidence, while limited, suggests that some users can identify fentanyl, although not reliably, and some desire it, but because fentanyl is frequently marketed deceptively as other drugs, users lack information and choice to express demand effectively. Even when aware of fentanyl's presence, drug users may lack fentanyl-free alternatives. Cryptomarkets, while difficult to quantify, appear to offer buyers greater information and competition than offline markets. However, access barriers and patterns of fentanyl-related health consequences make cryptomarkets unlikely sources of user influence on the fentanyl supply. Market condition data indicate heroin supply shocks and shortages prior to the introduction of fentanyl in the United States and parts of Europe, but the much lower production cost of fentanyl compared with heroin may be a more significant factor Conclusion-Current evidence points to a supply-led addition of fentanyl to the drug market in response to heroin supply shocks and shortages, changing prescription opioid availability and/or reduced costs and risks to suppliers. Current drug users in affected regions of the United States, Canada and Europe appear largely to lack both concrete knowledge of fentanyl's presence in the drugs they buy and access to fentanyl-free alternatives.

Introduction Little is known about trends in national rates of injection-related skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) and their relationship to the structural risk environment for heroin users. Use of Mexican-sourced “Black Tar” heroin, predominant in western US states, may have greater risk for SSTI compared with eastern US powder heroin (Colombian-sourced) due to its association with non-intravenous injection or from possible contamination. Methods Using nationally representative hospital admissions data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and heroin price and purity data from the Drug Enforcement Administration, we looked at rates of hospital admissions for opiate-related SSTI (O-SSTI) between 1993 and 2010. Regression analyses examined associations between O-SSTI and heroin source, form and price. Results Hospitalization rates of O-SSTI doubled from 4 to 9 per 100,000 nationally between 1993 and 2010; the increase concentrated among individuals aged 20 to 40. Heroin market features were strongly associated with changes in the rate of SSTI. Each $100 increase in yearly heroin price-per–gram-pure was associated with a 3% decrease in the rate of heroin-related SSTI admissions. Mexican-sourced-heroin-dominant cities had twice the rate of O-SSTI compared to Colombian-sourced-heroin-dominant cities. Discussion Heroin-related SSTI are increasing and structural factors, including heroin price and source-form, are associated with higher rates of SSTI hospital admissions. Clinical and harm reduction efforts should educate heroin users on local risk factors, e.g., heroin type, promote vein health strategies and provide culturally sensitive treatment services for persons suffering with SSTI.

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